Chapter 11 – How to trade the News!

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“This is an excerpt from the Liberated Stock Trader Book and accompanying Training Course“.

We have all been there, I certainly have. I bought a stock I really thought was a winner, like the perfect first date, it looked good, it felt good, it sounded good, it smelled right, and most of all it acted right. Even when it came to paying the bill, she paid.

The bill of course was the earnings report.  Earnings were great, the chart looked good, the fundamentals looked great, it had an order book of new contracts in a booming economy, an industry leader delivering a good service. Yet when the excellent earnings were reported, beating estimates no less; the stock plummeted by 50% in one day.

I guess my free news sources including Routers and other sources saw me as the last drop off point for their baggage.  Did you know that unless you pay for the premium services offered by Bloomberg and Reuters you receive the news with a 30 minute delay?  The playing field is not quite level.  That is why you pay the premium price.

On release of the earnings the company decided to issue more new stock to the market, the stock price had quadrupled in the previous 4 months to over $2 and the future was rosy, yet my delay in news hurt me. When this charlatan of a company decided to issue extra stock to raise capital for one of its new mega projects it issued them at 50% of the value of the stock available on the market. This immediately involved carnage to the stock price. In fact the price although eventually recovering, has again slumped to under $1.
I was not playing the news, the news played me. However there are those that play the news with some success. The problem with playing the news is it is not hard and cold facts it is feelings, interpretation and an abstract appreciation for how the public interprets news events.

How often does it happen that when a good earnings report is announced the stock falls? Too often! Why? There is a saying on Wall Street that you “buy the rumor sell the news”. That’s great if you mingle in the rumor circles that might pay, insiders, employees, good buddies with the CEO. However for us mere mortals we might not have these advantages. I have also heard of too many rumors that have backfired, tips from a friend in the industry, the nod from the supplier to a new startup company with a bright future. Apart from being illegal, insider trading of this nature especially when second hand is completely unreliable.

But to some extent we all play the news. One way or another it gets us. Turn on any news channels and the reporters are constantly overstating the meaning of things. We should not believe everything we read. One of my favorite headlines was from USA Today.

“Gas price decline may spur inflation”

Honestly, can you believe that!

Of course economists can rationalize anything, but I am not buying it. The fact is if we take news with a pinch of salt and make our own minds up about it’s real meaning it can be useful. But too much news can drag you in with the sheep on the road to the slaughter house.

Trading the news can be very difficult this is why there is such a strong emphasis on Fundamentals and Technical Analysis.

News is completely open to interpretation; this is why I detest news corporations that force their opinions on the viewer or readership. Viewing news with a contrarian attitude or making your own decisions on what that news really means is absolutely critical. When everyone was yelling from the roof tops that the American Auto industry was dead I was watching GM like a hawk, it was in every news medium, I had no choice. However if I had bet on Ford (whose products I prefer), I would have made a killing in 2009.

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Other Chapters of the Liberated Stock Trader Book are listed below

Chapter 1 – Essential Stock Market Knowledge – Fundamentals

This chapter sets the stage for the two key areas of stock market technical analysis and the fundamental analysis of companies including macro and micro economics

Chapter 2 – What Really Moves Markets - Why do Booms and Busts Occur?

This chapter looks at what REALLY makes the markets move, what causes boom and bust cycles and how to spot them.

Chapter 3 – How do markets move ? - Stock Market Cycles – Business & Economic Cycles – Kondratieff to Kuznets

What are stock market cycles and the cycles of business and economies.  Important information that you need to appreciate as part of your core analysis.

Chapter 4 – Is the Company in great shape – P/E Ratio

Next we move into fundamental analysis and the financial fitness of a company.  All the major indicators and measures are covered.

Chapter 5 – How to find the best stocks

Stock screening means using criteria to short list the kind of stock that you want to purchase.  A vital part of any stock market training

Chapter 6 – Chart Reading made easy - Japanese Candlesticks – Bullish Reversal Patterns

Once you know the business climate, the state of the economy and you have shortlisted the stocks you want to buy.  The next thing to do is the technical analysis.  Even if the company looks great on paper, if the stock price is plummeting you do not want to buy it until it has bottomed out.  This is called catching a falling knife.  This is what chart patterns and technical analysis helps with.

Chapter 7 – Trend Lines and Price Patterns - How to draw trend lines

Here we get into the art of drawing on charts to help you visualize the Supply and Demand on the stock, the direction of the trend and estimate how long the trend will last.  Vital for you to establish buy and sell signals.

Chapter 8 – Chart Indicators are your friends ! – ROC Rate of Change Indicator

Which indicators should you use, there are literally hundreds of stock chart indicators.  Each have a specific use case and application, which should you use?

Chapter 9 – Chart Indicators Volume - The Price Volume Relationship

Volume is a vital indicator along with price.  Both of these you need to understand in granular detail, you will learn everything you need to know.

Chapter 10 - Advanced Stock Charting Techniques Parabolic SAR

Moving to advanced technical analysis we cover indicators such as parabolic SAR and point & figure charts.

Chapter 11 - Sentiment Indicators & Trading the News - How to trade the news

How are the market participants feeling?  Positive, Negative or indifferent.  Consider that 90% of people fail to beat the average market returns, sentiment indicators can be a great contrary indicator.  Lean how to use them to your advantage.

Chapter 12 - Trading Strategy - What type Of Investor are you?

Understanding how you want to invest, how much time you have and your time horizon.  These questions all help you to understand what type of investor you want to be, this then enables you to select the right strategy for you.  Then we move on to building your stock investing system, a critical element to your plan.

3 COMMENTS

  1. This is a really good article. I enjoyed reading it. I gained a lot of information reading your post. I really loved it.

  2. Nowadays an average investor get news a minute later than those who pay to bloomberg and reuters. Of course, it is pretty difficult to trade news when somebody is ahead of you, but I think trading technically enables one to go with those big dogs that drive financial markets.
    Thanks for the article. Some good stuff here.

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