Chapter 2 – Why do Booms and Busts Occur?

This is an excerpt from the Liberated Stock Trader Book and Training Course.

Why do Booms and Busts occur?

Take for example the famous DOTCOM boom of 2000.  Greed surged into the market place on the misplaced belief that new internet based technology would fundamentally shift the market dynamic and business models of the future.  Technology became fashionable and “Bricks and Mortar” businesses were perceived to be outdated and almost worthless.  This paradigm shift meant that money poured into technology stocks at an unrepentant rate and money poured out of “Bricks and Mortar” stocks at an equal rate.

A tell tale sign of problems to come was really noticeable when stock analysts would suggest Price Earnings valuations on tech stocks of 200, 300 or more were reasonable even though he companies in question had never made a profit.  The Price Earnings Ratio is the ratio of the Stock Price to its actual earnings.  If a P/E Ratio is at 30 then it would take the company 30 years to earn back the share price.  The higher the P/E ratio the higher the expectation that the stock will perform well in the future.  You can also see the P/E ratio as a valuation of the worth of the stock, if the P/E is 200 you are essentially paying 200 times the earnings capacity of the company.

In the Year 2000 the P/E Ratio of the S&P500 reached nearly 45.  This was an all time high and essentially indicated that the expectation of the market participants was completely unrealistic.  By the time the inevitable correction completed the P/E Ratio for the S&P500 had halved to just over 20.  Much of the greed and hype was fueled by professional analysts and so called market gurus.  They became greedy and euphoric, a heady mixture.   When everyone slowly began to realize that the the huge profit expectations would not be met by the tech industry, the entire sector collapsed bringing with it other other industries, indexes & markets.  The Tech Bubble had burst.

Depressions, Recoveries, Recessions

 

How does this affect our investments?

The boom is good for our investments in the short term but only if we move into cash before the bust, which of course only the enlightened few ever manage to achieve.

So who suffers the wrath of the Bust?  The private investor, you and I!  We lost money in our pensions, our mutual funds, and our stock portfolios; we lost jobs, earning power and our appetite for risk.

It seems that the time interval between economic crisis and the boom bust sequence is happening at shortening time intervals, so it always pays to beware.  When every analyst is screaming “Buy Buy Buy” and acting like the best thing in the world is happening, that is the time to be most careful.  When all the market reports are reiterating what a depressing time it is, how there is no future in the stock market and when prices have lost 20% or even 50% of their value, that could possibly be one of the best times to buy.

Other Chapters of the Liberated Stock Trader Book are listed below

Chapter 1 – Essential Stock Market Knowledge – Fundamentals

This chapter sets the stage for the two key areas of stock market technical analysis and the fundamental analysis of companies including macro and micro economics

Chapter 2 – What Really Moves Markets - Why do Booms and Busts Occur?

This chapter looks at what REALLY makes the markets move, what causes boom and bust cycles and how to spot them.

Chapter 3 – How do markets move ? - Stock Market Cycles – Business & Economic Cycles – Kondratieff to Kuznets

What are stock market cycles and the cycles of business and economies.  Important information that you need to appreciate as part of your core analysis.

Chapter 4 – Is the Company in great shape – P/E Ratio

Next we move into fundamental analysis and the financial fitness of a company.  All the major indicators and measures are covered.

Chapter 5 – How to find the best stocks

Stock screening means using criteria to short list the kind of stock that you want to purchase.  A vital part of any stock market training

Chapter 6 – Chart Reading made easy - Japanese Candlesticks – Bullish Reversal Patterns

Once you know the business climate, the state of the economy and you have shortlisted the stocks you want to buy.  The next thing to do is the technical analysis.  Even if the company looks great on paper, if the stock price is plummeting you do not want to buy it until it has bottomed out.  This is called catching a falling knife.  This is what chart patterns and technical analysis helps with.

Chapter 7 – Trend Lines and Price Patterns - How to draw trend lines

Here we get into the art of drawing on charts to help you visualize the Supply and Demand on the stock, the direction of the trend and estimate how long the trend will last.  Vital for you to establish buy and sell signals.

Chapter 8 – Chart Indicators are your friends ! – ROC Rate of Change Indicator

Which indicators should you use, there are literally hundreds of stock chart indicators.  Each have a specific use case and application, which should you use?

Chapter 9 – Chart Indicators Volume - The Price Volume Relationship

Volume is a vital indicator along with price.  Both of these you need to understand in granular detail, you will learn everything you need to know.

Chapter 10 - Advanced Stock Charting Techniques Parabolic SAR

Moving to advanced technical analysis we cover indicators such as parabolic SAR and point & figure charts.

Chapter 11 - Sentiment Indicators & Trading the News - How to trade the news

How are the market participants feeling?  Positive, Negative or indifferent.  Consider that 90% of people fail to beat the average market returns, sentiment indicators can be a great contrary indicator.  Lean how to use them to your advantage.

Chapter 12 - Trading Strategy - What type Of Investor are you?

Understanding how you want to invest, how much time you have and your time horizon.  These questions all help you to understand what type of investor you want to be, this then enables you to select the right strategy for you.  Then we move on to building your stock investing system, a critical element to your plan.

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