Technical Analysis

I backtested four RSI indicator trading setups from 1-minute to daily charts across the DJ30 stocks from 1 month to 27 years, equaling over 820 years of testing data. Not all RSI configurations work, but I did discover the most profitable RSI indicator settings.

I backtested seven Parabolic SAR trading setups from 1-minute to daily charts across the DJ30 stocks over 12 years, equaling over 2,880 years of testing data. On standard charts, PSAR is not a profitable trading indicator. But I did discover the most profitable PSAR configuration.

The Hull moving average is a lesser-known chart indicator, and our testing reveals it outperforms other moving averages. But with only a 17% win rate, using the Hull moving average for trading is not advised due to its poor performance in consolidating markets.

The weighted moving average (WMA) is a widely used chart indicator, but our testing reveals it underperforms other moving averages with only a 7% win rate. Using WMA as a trading tool is not advised due to its incredibly poor performance.

Drawing trendlines on stock charts is a powerful way to assess the direction of the market. Trendlines help you understand the trend direction and timeframe to set expectations for future market moves. 

The exponential moving average (EMA) is a popular chart indicator considered to be better than the simple moving average. But according to our testing, it performs much worse. I advise against using the EMA as a trading tool as it is inaccurate and can lead to traders losing money.

The simple moving average is a popular, commonly used chart indicator. The SMA is typically the first indicator beginner traders learn and use, but our testing shows it is an extremely poor trading tool and should be avoided.

The 5 best moving averages for traders are the simple, exponential, weighted, exponential weighted, and Hull moving averages. Understanding how to interpret moving averages is a key skill for any trader looking for improved performance.

Academic research shows best chart patterns in technical analysis are the inverse head and shoulders, double bottom, triple bottom, descending triangle, and rectangle top. Each of these patterns has a proven success rate of over 85%, with an average gain of 43%.

Elliott Wave theory has an avid following amongst technical traders, enabling an understanding of market moves in cycles and waves. But wave theory has serious reliability limitations in trading, which means it is unproven and cannot be backtested for accuracy.

Backtesting the Ichimoku Cloud strategy on the DJ-30 Index stocks over 20 years resulted in 600 years of testing. The results are a dismal 10% win rate underperforming a buy-and-hold strategy 90% of the time. The Ichimoku indicator is a bad choice for traders.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is one of the most widely used yet poor-performing technical analysis indicators. Traders are misled into believing they can profit from this indicator.

The KDJ indicator can be up to 63% successful if configured correctly. If KDJ is set up poorly, it can cause significant losses and a poor reliability of 5%. Our KDJ testing shows how to use and understand the KDJ indicator.

Heikin Ashi candle charts are better than candlesticks for maximizing returns in a professional trading strategy. Backtesting 360 years of data across 30 major stocks shows that Heikin Ashi chart strategies outperform 60% of equities vs. a buy-and-hold strategy.

Backtesting the price rate of change indicator on 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks over 20 years resulted in an impressive 66% win rate outperforming a buy-and-hold strategy. The ROC indicator is a good choice for traders.

Bearish patterns in technical analysis suggest a decline in an asset's value. Common examples include flags, wedges, rectangles, and triangles. Due to the stock market's inherent bull bias, short-selling using bear patterns is risky and best left to experienced traders.

Bullish chart patterns signal future price increases and are important to traders, but not all are accurate or profitable. Testing shows triangles, rectangles, double bottoms, and the cup and handle are the most reliable bullish patterns. Traders need to avoid bull pennants and bull flags.

The inverse cup and handle chart pattern is a technical analysis trading strategy. Traders use it to identify a breakdown in asset prices, aiming to profit from short-selling a sharp price decline. The inverse cup and handle chart pattern is considered reliable based on 556+ trades, with an 82% success rate in bull markets.

Twenty years of trading research show the cup and handle pattern has a 95% success rate in bull markets and returns an average profit of +54%. The cup and handle chart pattern is reliable and accurate but can be difficult to identify.

Research shows the most reliable and profitable chart patterns are the Head & Shoulders, with an 89% success rate, the Double Bottom (88%), and the Triple Bottom and Descending Triangle (87%). The most profitable chart pattern is the Rectangle Top, with a 51% average profit.