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U.S. Stock Market Today - Level Headed Market Commentary from Liberated Stock Trader

The following stock market analysis is based on the most fundamental core concepts of the technical analysis of the financial markets.  We employ supply and demand signals, Dow Theory, Wave Theory and a cold hard look at reality.  This is how industry financial analysts perform market analysis... but without the hype.

The US Stock Market Today: Rally Continues despite Trade Woes

October 23, 2019

American stocks continued a slight rally, Wednesday, despite growing trade hysteria.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average moved by 45.85; or 0.17%, to 26,833.95. The Dow closed at 26,788 on Tuesday.

The NASDAQ Composite moved by 15.5 points; or 0.19%, to 8,119.79 Wednesday. The NASDAQ closed at 8,104 on Tuesday.

The S&P 500 moved by 8.53 points; or 0.28%, to 3,004.52 on Wednesday. The S&P closed at 2,996 on Tuesday.

Trade Hysteria Grips Wall Street

The indexes’ slight movements defied the trade-war hysteria gripping Wall Street.

“President Trump’s trade war is doing significant damage to the US and global economies,” Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi tells CNN Business. “The higher tariffs act like a tax increase on businesses and their customers.”

Zandi estimates tariffs President Donald J. Trump (R-New York) threatens to implement in December are the equivalent of an over $100 billion tax increase. CNN Business speculates trade-war fears are driving down profits at companies such as heavy-equipment maker Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT).

Caterpillar exports bulldozers and other machines to China. However, Caterpillar’s stock rose by $1.61; or 1.2%, to $135.34 on Wednesday. I think investors who doubt the trade war hype drove up CAT’s price by buying its shares.

Do Average People Believe in the Trade War?

I think Caterpillar’s movement shows ordinary investors doubt the trade-war hysteria.

I believe average Americans think an economic upturn and a bull market is coming. Major investors like Bridgewater Associates CEO Ray Dalio disagree with popular wisdom, however.

Dalio reveals he thinks the trade war will heat up and China will win in a widely quoted LinkedIn essay. Dalio hysterically compares current relations between the US and China with the relationship between the United States and Japan before World War II.

Dalio fears that the Chinese challenge to American hegemony could trigger intense economic warfare that could destroy the US economy. Dalio believes China is better equipped for economic warfare than America.

Only time will tell if Dalio or ordinary investors are right. Mr. Market, however, favors ordinary investors.

The US Stock Market Today: Mixed Earnings Reports send Markets Down

October 22, 2019

Mixed earnings reports from consumer sector companies sent U.S. indices down Tuesday.

The S&P 500 Index fell by 10.73; -0.36%, to close at 2,995.99. The S&P closed at 3,007 on Monday during a slight rally.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 39.54; or -0.15%, to close at 26,788.10. The Dow closed at 26,828 on Monday.

The NASDAQ Composite suffered the biggest loss of the day, Tuesday. The NASDAQ Composite fell by 58.69; or -0.72%, to close at 8,104.30. The NASDAQ closed at 8,163 on Monday.

Earnings Reports Send Mixed Signals

The indexes were responding to mixed signals sent by consumer sector earnings reports, Tuesday.

McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) share price fell by $10.57; -5.04%, to close at $199.27 Tuesday. Investors dumped McDonald’s because of a gloomy earnings report.

McDonald’s net income fell by 2% and its revenue rose by just 1% during 3rd Quarter 2019, CNN Business reports. McDonald’s disappointed investors by not meeting analysts’ earnings expectations.

Analysts hoped McDonald’s earnings from US restaurants could increase by 5.7% in 3rd quarter. McDonald’s earnings from established American locations rose by just 2.4%.

A very different; but equally iconic, American consumer brand motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG) had a good day on Tuesday. Harley-Davidson’s share price grew by $2.96 (7.98%) to $40.04.

Harley-Davidson’s share price grew despite a 24% drop in earnings during 3rd Quarter 2019. USA Today estimates Harley Davidson’s earnings fell from $113.9 million in 3rd Quarter 2018 to $86.5 million in 3rd Quarter 2019.

Is Income Inequality Affecting American Stocks?

Growing income inequality in America could explain Mr. Market’s willingness to take a risk on companies that sell big-tickets items to the upper class like Harley-Davidson. The US Census Bureau estimates American income inequality is at the highest level in 50 years, NBC News reports.

Investors could think upper income Americans could have more money to spend on motorcades because of income inequality. Investors could also think lower-income Americans could have less cash to spend at McDonald’s.

The US Stock Market Today: Stocks start Week with Rally

October 21, 2019

US markets shrugged off trade fears by starting the week with a small rally on Monday.

Good news in earnings from companies like railway Kansas City Southern (NYSE: KSU) boosted the market. The KSU reported a 7% revenue growth rate for 3rd Quarter 2019 on October 18, 2019.

The NASDAQ Composite followed by moving 71.84 points; or 0.91%, to 7,940.33 Monday. The NASDAQ opened at 7,911.58 and closed at 7,940.33.

The S&P 500 rose by moving 20.52 points; or 0.69% Monday. The S&P closed at 3,006.72 but fell to a daily low of 2,995.35.

The Trade War Continues

The trade war heated up Monday, as China asked the World Trade Organization (WTO) for $2.4 billion in retaliatory sanctions against the U.S.

The Chinese government the money as a judgment in a July case; in which the WTO found the US non-compliance with an earlier case, Reuters reports. Monday’s trading shows Mr. Market ignored the latest trade war tactic.

President Donald J. Trump (R-New York); however, claims trade negotiations with China are going very well, MarketWatch reports. At a cabinet meeting Monday, Trump said he thinks China will make a new trade deal because its supply chain is “going down the tubes.”

The President presented no evidence to support his claims. They have scheduled next round of US-China trade talks for November 16 and 17 in Chile.

Market shows faith in US Consumer Spending

The market’s confidence in American consumer spending is high. Monday’s big gainers include luxury beauty products and fragrance maker Coty Inc. (NYSE: COTY).

Coty’s share price grew by $1.36; or 13.44%, to $11.48 in Monday’s trading. Coty’s rise shows investors believe Americans could increase consumer products spending.

US Indexes Rally

The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the rally by moving 57.44 points; or 0.21%, Monday. The Dow opened at 26,806.41 and closed at 26,827.64 Monday.

 

The US Stock Market Today: Ugly Friday for Indexes

October 18, 2019

All three big US stock indices lost most of the week’s gains in an ugly trading session Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 255.88; or -0.95%, to finish at 26,770.20 Friday. The Dow finished the week, lower. The Dow Jones opened at 26,766.64 on Monday.

The NASDAQ Composite finished the week a little higher. The NASDAQ opened at 7,834.74 on Monday and closed at 7,868.49 Friday. The Dow fell by 73.65; or -0.93%, in Friday’s trading.

Trade War Fears Hurt Markets

My impression is that fear of a long trade war is dragging the market down. Investors could think the trade war will lower economic and agriculture activity in the American heartland.

China can hurt the economy in America’s heartland by buying fewer agricultural products. Reuters reports that Chinese traders are increasing their purchases of Brazilian soybeans. Soybeans are one of America’s largest exports to China.

The Chinese have purchased $173 million worth of Brazilian soybeans this week, Reuters claims. Meanwhile, there have been no US soybean sales to China since last week’s trade talks in Washington, the US Department of Agriculture reports.

It appears that the trade war with China is on, and there is no trade deal between Beijing and Washington. If the lack of Chinese agricultural purchases continues, U.S. indices could fall farther next week.

American Railroad Gains

The most surprising winner in Friday’s trading was the Kansas City Southern (NYSE: KSU), a railroad.

Kansas City Southern’s share price grew by $9.83; or 7.26% in Friday’s trading. Kansas City Southern’s high price could indicate investors think trade between the US and Mexico could expand. The Kansas City Southern operates a rail line between the American Midwest and Mexico.

The US Stock Market Today: Indexes up Slightly

October 17, 2019

Mr. Market could acclimatize to the “trade war.” All three major US indexes gained slightly despite a new hard line position on trade from Beijing.

The S&P 500 Index grew by 0.28%: or 8.26, from 2,990 to 2,997.95 Thursday.  The NASDAQ composite rose by 0.4%; or 32.67, to 8,146.85 from 8,124. The Dow Jones Index rose by 0.99%; or 23.90 Thursday, to 27,025.88 from 27,002.

I think the gains show traders and investors are a little less afraid of a trade war. Another possibility is that Mr. Market is learning to live with trade tensions that could last until after next year’s Presidential election.

Beijing Takes Hard Line on Trade

A trade war resolution is unlikely because of the hard line from Beijing.

The only trade deal that the People’s Republic of China will accept is the end of all additional tariffs, Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng told reporters Thursday. Feng did not say if his government plans more trade negotiations with Washington, CNBC reports.

Thus it is unclear if Beijing will follow up on last week’s negotiations in Washington D.C. There is a strong possibility the Chinese will suspend negotiations until after next year’s U.S. elections.

The Chinese could wait to see if there will be a new President and Congressional leadership in January 2021. Thus, there could be no negotiations until mid-November 2020. The U.S. national elections will occur on November 3, 2020.

IBM shares hurt by European Weakness

Historic computer maker IBM’s (NYSE: IBM) share price fell by $7.85, or -5.52%, to $134.26 Thursday.

The price collapse could end an 18.11% year-to-date growth rate at IBM. Reuters blames weak demand for data center products in European markets for IBM’s drop. IBM also missed most analysts’ earnings projections.

IBM’s problems show that a downturn could have begun in Europe. The European weakness could send the technology-heavy NASDAQ down, if it continues.

The US Stock Market Today: Trade Sinks US Markets Again

October 16, 2019

America’s stock indices fell Wednesday as tensions over Hong Kong squashed trade deal hopes.

The US House of Representatives; and not President Donald J. Trump (R-New York), soured US-China relations Wednesday. The lower house of the US Congress passed a bill that could lead to sanctions against Hong Kong’s government, The South China Morning Post reports.

Beijing brands the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019 an effort to interfere in China’s internal affairs. If passed the Act could end Hong Kong’s current status as a separate trading entity under US law.

The act is far from becoming law. To become law, the act will need to pass the US Senate and receive the President’s signature.

US China Tensions Drive Markets Down

All three major US stock indices fell Wednesday as news of the House’s action spread.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by -22.82; or -0.08%, to 27,001.98. The Dow closed at 27,025 on Tuesday.

The NASDAQ Composite fell by -24.51; or -0.30%, to 8,124.18, Wednesday. The NASDAQ Composite; which contains many companies that manufacture products in China, closed at 8,149 Tuesday.

The S&P 500 Index fell by -5.99; or -0.20% to 2,989.69, Wednesday. The S&P closed at 2,996 on Tuesday.

Wednesday’s drop shows any tensions between the US and China can panic Mr. Market. Investors need to prepare for more drops as the 2020 US election season opens. American politicians will try to outdo each other by being tough on China, leading to more tensions.

Trucking Company Gains on Wednesday

Mr. Market was bullish on trucking Wednesday. The big gainers included JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. (NASDAQ: JBHT).

Hunt’s share price grew by $4.05 or 3.53% to $115.65 Wednesday. Hunt operates a huge fleet of trucks that delivers goods to American businesses.

Hunt’s share price gains could indicate American investors think the US economy will continue to grow in 2020.

The US Stock Market Today: Indexes up Slightly

October 15, 2019

America’s indices experienced a slight growth Tuesday as the markets struggled to absorb the trade war and political turmoil.

The NASDAQ Composite opened at 8.074.85 and closed at 8,148.71. That resulted in a growth of 100.06, or 1.64%. In contrast, the NASDAQ Composite fell by 8.39, or -0.14%, on Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened at 26,811.20 and closed at 27,024.80. The Dow Jones grew by 237.44; or 0.89%, on Tuesday. Dow Jones Industrial fell by 29.23; or 0.11%, on Monday.

The S&P 500 opened at 2,966.15 and closed at 2,995.68 on Tuesday. The S&P grew by 29.53; or 1%, Tuesday. The S&P feel by 41.2, or -0.14%, on Monday.

Will Politics Sink the Market?

The markets are drifting because of the political confusion in Washington DC.

Democrats in the US House of Representatives had made no decision on an impeachment inquiry vote as of 4 p.m. Mountain Time on Tuesday, CNN reports. Thus gridlock and to the trade dispute with China will continue.

The Chinese are unlikely to make a deal with an administration that could soon leave. Instead of a trade deal, Beijing will offer limited concessions such as agreements to buy American agricultural goods.

The impeachment is expanding because several officials including Vice President Mike Pence (R-Indiana) are refusing to answer Congressional subpoenas. The subpoenas ask Pence and Secretary of Defense to turn over a variety of documents. More action is likely because Congress is back in session after a two-week break.

Health Insurance Giant has Great Day

The biggest winner on Wall Street Tuesday was health insurance giant UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE: UNH).

UnitedHealth’s share price grew by $18, or 8.16% in Tuesday’s trading. UnitedHealth started the day at $220.59 and finished at $238.69.

I think investors like UNH because much of its business is unaffected by the larger economy. Employers and the federal government pay most health insurance premiums in America. Therefore, UnitedHealth could make money in a recession.

The US Stock Market Today: Trade Optimism Fades

October 14, 2019

The major American stock indices fell slightly Monday as optimism about Friday’s US-Chinese trade deal faded.

Traders are skeptical because the deal between President Donald J. Trump (R-New York) and Chinese Vice Premier Liu Hue does not lower trade barriers. Instead, of lowering barriers the Chinese will double purchases of US agricultural products, Axios reports.

In exchange, Trump will delay 30% tariffs on Chinese goods. Trump had scheduled the tariffs to start on October 15, 2019, Tuesday. Plus, the Chinese could make unspecified concessions on intellectual property rights.

Trade Deal Doubts Hurt Indexes

Mr. Market thinks the trade war is on because there is no trade deal. The losses were slight, however, showing traders are waiting to see what will happen with trade.

The Dow Jones Industrial fell by 29.23; or 0.11%, Monday to close at 26,787.36. The Dow closed at 26,817 on Friday October 11.

Losses on the S&P 500 were slightly higher, probably because that index has more exposure to China. The S&P feel by 41.2, or -0.14%, Monday to close at 2,966.15. The S&P closed at 2,970 Friday.

The NASDAQ Composite fell by 8.39, or -0.14%, Monday to close at 8,048.66. The NASDAQ Composite closed at 8,057 on Friday.

I think US traders are waiting for more details of the trade deal. The markets’ sluggish performance indicates Wall Street’s skepticism of Trump’s ability to negotiate a trade deal is growing.

Hewlett Packard gains

Mr. Market is bullish on information technology (IT) and the cloud. The Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company’s (NYSE: HPE) share price rose by 4.18, or 60₵ Monday to finish at $14.95.

Hewlett Packard’s performance shows that traders believe corporate America will increase its IT spending. A strong possibility is that investors think US corporations will spend more on cloud computing solutions next year. Thus, Wall Street is optimistic about the overall US economy, but skeptical of Trump and trade.

The U.S. Stock Market Today: Mr. Market likes US China Trade Truce

October 11, 2019

Investors like President Donald J. Trump’s (R-New York) possible trade truce with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, Friday. Liu dropped by the White House and worked out a partial settlement on several trade issues.

Details of the truce are scarce but Reuters speculates it could cover intellectual property, tariffs, and agricultural products. However, even trade peace rumors were enough to boost the U.S. indices.

The Dow gained 319.92 points; or 1.21%, Friday to close at 26,816.59. Thus, the Dow recovered from losses earlier in the week. The Dow lost 409.7 points on Monday and Tuesday, but gained 653 points in the last three days of the week.

Are American Stocks Recovering?

The Dow is now close to the 27,182.45 it reached on September 12, 2019. Thus the Dow is recovering from September’s losses.

The NASDAQ Composite gained 106.26 points, or 1.34%, to finish at 8,057. The NASDAQ Composite was trading at 7,860.43 on Monday morning, and 7,951 at Thursday’s close. Like the Dow, the NASDAQ is close to the 8,194.47 reported on September 12, 2019.

The S&P 500 grew by 32.14; or 1.09%, in Friday’s trading to finish at 2,920.27. The S&P closed at 2,938 on Thursday and 2,944.23 on Monday morning. The S&P is close to the 3,009.57 level it reached on September 12, 2019.

I don’t think American stocks are recovering, but trade war hysteria is abating for now. However, Trump can restart the trade war, if he needs to drum up votes for next year’s presidential election.

Industrial parts distributor Fastenal wins big

The week’s big winner was Fastenal Co (NASDAQL FAST); which sells everything from garbage cans to fasteners to commercial clients. Fastenal’s share price grew by $5.32 or 17.15% on Friday.

The likely reason for Fastenal’s growth is the trade truce. They make most of the products Fastenal sells in China. Fastenal line of products includes tape, gloves, electric motors, pumps, tools, and paint brushes.

Investors could think tariffs will not increase prices and hurt Fastenal’s sales. Fastenal’s share price shows many investors are bullish on the US economy. Fastenal’s clients include manufacturers and distributors.

The US Stock Market Today: Small Gains in a Chaotic Week

October 10, 2019

All three big U.S. indices experienced small gains Thursday, as trade war fears continued to generate chaos.

President Donald J. Trump (R-New York) and Chinese Vice Liu Hue could boost markets with a meeting Friday, USA Today reports. No agenda for the meeting is available, but Liu leads a team of Chinese trade negotiators.

Trump could try to boost US stocks with the meeting. It is not clear if Trump’s announcement late in the day affected the indexes.

US Indexes Rise slightly

The Dow Jones rose by 0.57%; or 150.66, to 26,496.67 Thursday. The Dow closed at 26,346 on Wednesday.

The NASDAQ Composite grew by 0.6%, or 47.04, to 7,950.78 Thursday. The Dow closed at 7,904 on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 rose increased by 0.64%, or 18.73, to 2,938.13 on Thursday. The S&P 600 closed at 2,919 on Wednesday.

I think the markets are drifting because the trade situation is confusing investors. Investors cannot tell if there will be trade war.

The uncertainty means investors are afraid to sell but scared to buy. Instead, Mr. Market is waiting to see if the trade situation and the Middle East settle down before deciding.

Netflix has a Very Good Day

Investor favorite Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) had a very good day Thursday. Netflix’s share price grew by 4.84% or $12.95 to $280.48 during Thursday’s trading.

I think Netflix’s gains show Mr. Market has faith in the U.S. economy. Investors think Americans will continue to have the extra cash to pay Netflix subscription.

A conflicting opinion is that Americans lack the cash for amusements outside the home. Yet, American families can afford the $12.99 Netflix subscription.

The US Stock Market Today: Indices Bounce back in a Crazy Week

October 9, 2019

America’s indices bounced back, Wednesday, as trade and war fears eased. However, the indexes did not return to last week’s level.

The S&P 500, for instance, rose by 0.91%; or 26.34, to 2,919.40. The S&P closed at 2,952.01 on October 4, 2019.

The Dow Jones grew by 0.7%; or 181.97, to 26,346 in Monday’s trading. The Dow is still over 200 below the 26,573.72 it closed at on Friday.

The NASDAQ Composite grew by 1.02%: or 79.96, to 7,903.74 on Wednesday. The NASDAQ closed at 7,982.47.

All three indexes will need a few more good days to recover from last weeks’ losses.

Why did American Stocks Recover Slightly?

The most likely reason for the slight recovery is that the market is getting used to a torrent of bad news.

Wednesday’s headlines were grim and hysterical. Turkey began airstrikes against Kurdish forces in Syria. Plus a 2.5 magnitude earthquake, power outages, and wildfire fears were reported in Northern California.

The Guardian reports federal agents arrested an unidentified Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) employee for allegedly leaking information to journalists. News reports did not say whether the employee is the shadowy figure who sparked the current U.S. impeachment crisis.

Mr. Market, like average Americans, is coming to regard the hysteria as background noise. Disruptive news could send the markets back down, however.

Is Apple resistant to Trade War Fears?

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) had a good day on Wednesday. Apple shares rose by 1.17% or 2.63 to $227.03 in Wednesday’s trading.

Politico reported that Apple CEO Tim Cook has a good relationship with U.S. President Donald J. Trump (R-New York) in June. Cook is trying to engage Trump to exempt Apple from the President’s proposed 25% tariffs on some Chinese products.

Investors believe those tariffs could affect iPhones. Some investors could also believe Cook can get Apple exempted from the tariffs.

The US Stock Market Today: Indexes keep sliding

October 8, 2019

Losses on American indices grew fast Tuesday as trade jitters added to the anxiety caused by war fears and political turmoil.

The Dow’s Tuesday losses were over three times larger than Monday’s drop. The Dow Jones fell by -313.98 points or 1.19% to 26,164.04 on Tuesday. In contrast, the Dow Jones fell by 95.7 points; or -0.36%, to 26,478 in Monday’s trading.

The NASDAQ Composite took the biggest hit Tuesday, falling by -1.67% or 132.52 points to 7,823.78. On Monday, the NASDAQ Composite fell by 26.18; or 0.33%, to 7,956.29.

The S&P 500 proved just as vulnerable to Tuesday’s downturn. On October 8, 2019, the S&P 500 fell by -1.56%; or 45.73, to 2,983.06. The S&P 500 fell by 13.22 points; or -0.45%, to 2,938.79 on Monday.

China Fears Drive US stocks down

Fears of a growing conflict with China are probably driving US indices down.

The Trump administration ratcheted up trade tensions on Tuesday by adding Chinese artificial intelligence companies to its trade blacklist, Reuters reports. In retaliation, the Chinese government gave Washington a sharp rebuke.

Wall Street could fear that President Donald J. Trump (R-New York) will use tough trade action to strengthen his position for the upcoming US presidential election. Trump needs the votes of American nationalists; who are hostile to China, to win both the Republican primary and next year’s general election.

A related fear is that the Chinese may put all trade negotiations on hold until after the election. Thus trade tensions could rise and American exports to China could fall for the next year.

The trade fears add to the political turmoil generated by the impeachment crisis in Washington and war fears in the Middle East.

Downturn pushes Gold Miner Up

One stock that went up Tuesday was the gold miner Newmont Goldcorp (NYSE: NEM). Newmont’s share price grew by 1.78% Tuesday to finish at $38.92. Newmont’s price growth could indicate investors think economic and political turmoil will drive up gold prices.

The US Stock Market Today: Stocks Down because of Syria

Friday’s gains were lost as all three major US stock indices fell on Monday, October 7, 2019.

The Dow Jones fell by 95.7 points or -0.36% to 26,478 in Monday’s trading. The  Dow closed at 26,573.72 on Friday.

The S&P 500 fell by 13.22 points or -0.45% to 2,938.79 Monday. The S&P closed at 2,952.01 on Friday.

However, Monday’s drops were still lower than Friday’s gains. The Dow gained 1.42% on Friday; the S&P 500 gained 41.38 points or 1.42% on Friday, and the NASDAQ Composite grew by 110.21 points or 1.4% on Friday.

War Scare Hits US Stocks

Another war score in the Middle East seemed to rattle the market.

President Donald J. Trump’s (R-New York) decision to withdraw some U.S. troops from Syria and a threat to “totally destroy and obliterate the Economy of Turkey” could have frightened traders. The Syrian Democratic Forces’ warning that Trump’s actions will help ISIS added to the fears, Al Jazeera reported.

Trump’s latest actions come as the level of tension between the U.S. and Iran remains high. Trump’s actions are hurting Turkey’s economy. Turkish dollar bonds fell by 1.3₵ and the Turkish lira dropped to a one-month low. The lira fell by 1.6% to 5.795 to the dollar in Monday’s trading.

Mr. Market could fear an economic crisis in Turkey that could spread to other economies including Western Europe. A major danger is that ISIS could reestablish its bases in Syria and launch new terror attacks against Western Europe and the United States.

Department Store gains in Monday’s Trading

The most interesting winner in Monday’s market was discount department store operator Kohl’s Corp (NYSE: KSS). Kohl’s shares rose by 2.5% or $1.18 to $48.36 in Monday’s trading.

Traders could think America’s retail apocalypse is ending. Another possibility is that traders like Kohl’s partnerships with fast growing retailers. Kohl’s lets customers return Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) orders in its stores, Forbes reports. Kohl’s is also sharing store space with the fast-growing discount grocer Aldi, Winsight Grocery Business reports.

Kohl’s gain shows Mr. Market still has faith in traditional retailers.

Stock Market Today: American Stocks Rebound

October 4, 2019

American stocks bounced back slightly after a volatile week. The Dow Jones had a good day Friday but did not recoup the week’s losses.

The Dow Jones began the week at 26,852.33 at 9:30 a.m. on Monday September 30, 2019, and finished at 26,569 on Friday, October 4, 2019. Hence the Dow finished the week 256.33 points lower. On Friday, the Dow rose by 1.42% or 372.68 from 26,288.32 60 26,573.72.

The NASDAQ composite also rebounded by rising by 110.21 or 1.40% on Friday. The NASDAQ opened at 7,908 and finished at 7,982.47 on Friday October 4, 2019. The NASDAQ composite showed a bit of stability, it began the week with 7,964.09 at 9:30 a.m. on September 30, 2019, and finished at 7,982.47.

The S&P 500 showed the most volatility. The S&P started the week at 2,967.07 at 9:30 a.m. on Monday September 30, 2019 and finished at 2,952.01 on Friday, October 4, 2019. In Friday’s trading the S&P went from 2,919.57 to 2,952.01. That made for a gain of 41.38 or 1.42%.

Are Americans Regaining Confidence in the Market?

I think American investors are regaining some confidence in the market after a week of scary headlines. Investors are no longer spooked by political turmoil and some scary economic numbers.

New mortgage applications fell by 10.1% in the two weeks ending on September 25, 2019, the Mortgage Bankers Association estimates. Observers blame the drop in mortgage applications on rising interest rates.

I think falling consumer confidence could be scaring people away from big ticket purchases. Overall mortgage applications were still 9% higher than in September 2019 which shows consumer confidence was high to begin with.

Insurance is now a sector to watch. Insurer and reinsurer Chubb Limited’s (NYSE: CB) rose by 3.59% or $5.16 on Friday. Chubb’s price has grown by over one-fourth or 25.45% in year-to-date trading. Chubb’s growth could mean investors are looking for safer cash-rich stocks in a volatile economy.

 

The US Stock Market Today: American Political Turmoil Hits Stock Market

October 3, 2019

Political turmoil in the United States fueled volatility in the US markets on October 3, 2019. Oddly, stocks fell early in the morning but rebounded by day’s end.

The Dow Jones opened at 26,039.02 but fell to 25,788.11 around 10 a.m. and closed at 26,176.62. By my calculation the Dow lost 635.73 points between Monday September 30, 2019, and Thursday, October 3, 2019. The Dow Opened at 26,809.69 on September 30, 2019.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 opened at 2,887.61 and closed at 2,910.92 on October 3, 2019. I calculate the S&P 500 has lost 56.15 points this week. The S&P 500 opened at 2,967.07 on Monday September 30, 2019.

The NASDAQ Composite opened at 7,787.02, fell 25,757.88 at 10:10 a.m. and closed at 26,173.96. By my calculation the NASDAQ Composite lost 635.73 points in four days of trading. The NASDAQ opened at 26,809.69 on Monday September 30, 2019.

Is Political Turmoil Driving American Stocks Down?

The most likely cause of the roller cause of American Indices’ roller coaster ride is political turmoil.

On Monday, the US House of Representatives opened an impeachment inquiry into President Donald J. Trump’s (R-New York). On Wednesday, number two Democratic presidential candidate U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) suspended campaign activities because of heart surgery.

Sanders suspension creates turmoil because it throws the outcome of the Democratic presidential primary into doubt. Sanders’ health raises concerns about three other candidates; Trump, U.S. Senator Liz Warren (D-Massachusetts), and Joe Biden (D-Delaware). All three are over 70 years of age.

On Thursday, Trump demanded that the Chinese government investigate the business activities of Biden and his son Hunter. Trump’s action increases turmoil by accusing Biden of corruption. That helps Biden’s rivals in the Democratic primary.

Boeing surges

The biggest winner in Thursday’s stock market turmoil was Boeing (NYSE: BA) which saw its share price increase by 1.28% or $4.71. Boeing began trading at $366.21 and closed at $372.22.

The price increase indicates investors have forgiven Boeing the 737 Max crashes.

The US Stock Market Today – Investor Confidence Falls, Casinos Gain

October 2, 2019

Investor confidence in American stocks fell again on October 2, 2019. All three major US indices had a bad day

The Dow Jones fell by -494.2 or 1.86% to 26,078.62. The S&P 500 dropped by -52.64 or -1.79% to 2,887.61, and the NASDAQ fell by -123.439 or 1.56% to 7,785.25.

The biggest story of the day is that investor confidence in tech stocks appears to be falling. The NASDAQ’s 1.56% drop shows stockholders have less faith in Silicon Valley’s ability to avoid a downturn.

One reason for the loss of confidence in tech could be Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s admission he is afraid of U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts). In audio of a Facebook management meeting “leaked” to The Verge Zuckerberg reportedly says, “I mean, if she (Warren) gets elected president, then I would bet that we will have a legal challenge.”

Recent polls show the left-wing Warren could overtake pro-business moderate Joe Biden (D-Delaware) as the leader in the Democratic primary race. The primary winner will challenge President Donald J. Trump (R-New York) in next year’s election.

The strangest stock of the day on October 2, 2019, was casino operator Wynn Resorts Limited (NASDAQ: WYNN). Wynn shares were up by 1.16% or $1.27 in the daily trading. Wynn’s share value has grown by 12.42% so far in 2019.10.2

Wynn’s growth shows that investors believe America’s rich will keep getting richer. Wynn is famous for serving Whales, casino slang for wealthy gamblers.

 

Strangely, Wynn’s share growth shows American investors could have more faith in China’s economic growth than the American economy. Wynn Resorts operates luxury casinos in Macau on the Chinese coast, Las Vegas, and Boston Harbor.

Some Americans think Wynn will make money from increasingly affluent Chinese bettors.

The U.S. Stock Market Today: Scary Headlines

October 1, 2019

The long-anticipated US stock market correction is continuing with drops in all the major indices.

The Dow Jones took the biggest hit falling by 322.88 points or 1.19% by early afternoon. However, the S&P 500 wasn’t far behind at 1.17%  or 35.24 points. The NASDAQ did a little better by just 1.09% or 86.97 points.

Scary headlines are the apparent cause of the correction. In particular, claims that U.S. manufacturing had its worst reading in a decade and hysteria about war with Iran and oil prices. The hysteria about Trump’s impeachment coming from Washington is adding to investor panic.

Another cause of political uncertainty is the unsettled Democratic presidential primary. Speculation that left-wing U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) is the Democratic front runner scares some investors. Warren’s reputation as anti-business and support for higher taxes is adding to the political uncertainty.

Outside events like Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s hysterical warnings about “unimaginable rises in oil prices” on American television add to the confusion.

Market optimism is still high in some sectors, however. The slightly better NASDAQ performance indicates some investors believe tech stocks are more resistant to political turmoil than industry and retail.

Better than expected iPhone sales could be boosting the NASDAQ. JP Morgan analysts speculate Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) could sell one million more iPhones than analysts forecast. Apple’s share price went from $217.53 on Friday September 27, 2019, to $225.35 on Tuesday, October 1, 2019.

I see no indication that better iPhone sales will boost the rest of the NASDAQ, however. The NASDAQ Composite slide continued despite Apple’s good fortune.

I think the correction will continue because of media emphasis on political uncertainty, impeachment, Iran, and oil prices. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones will keep dropping because investors view those indices as heavily exposed to uncertainty.

The U.S. Stock Market Today: Nasdaq 100 Index – The Best Performing Index – By Far

April 12th, 2019

I have long known that the Nasdaq 100 out-performs all indices and benchmarks. In fact, during the completion of the liberatedstocktrader.com crash detector system which I refined over many years, I have learned that the 20-year return of the NDX-100 is 604% (from 1998 to present), compare that to the S&P500 which netted only 200%.

If you are going to buy and hold any index, it has to be the Nasdaq 100 as the returns are superior. Don’t just by any ETF or index tracking fund, buy the one that continually provides the best returns. No other broad market index has managed to beat 200% over the last 20 years.

Nasdaq 100 - Stock Market Today Chart
Nasdaq 100 – Stock Market Today Chart – Courtesy of TradingView

Additionally, in the chart above we can see the last 16 weeks of Nasdaq 100 have brought us 15 up weeks with only 1 down week. But will that change?

The index is approaching again it’s all-time high and we should expect some strong resistance coming up. Also, we have earnings season starting again and that will decide if we break-through to new highs or fade away. Ultimately right now there is no reason (technically) to expect a market turnaround. Resistance YES, bear market NO. There have been no shock alerts since December 2018, and the market is in a solid bull run.

Outlook:
Short-term Trend (Days to Weeks) – Up
Medium-term Trend (Weeks to Months) – Up
Long-term Trend (Months to Years) – Sideways

The Stock Market Today: S&P500 – Don’t Give Me That Bull! No Long-Term Bull Signs Yet

January 8th, 2019

Well, happy new year and all that.  Where have I been you may ask?  Thanks for asking, I was recording my latest set of stock market training podcasts and enjoying Christmas and New Year with family and friends.  I did not have to worry about the stock market as I moved to cash in November as mentioned previously in my updates.

The joy of being a trained stock market analyst is that you can see the medium to long-term trends fairly easily.  Whereas the market for the year is down 6%, I am up 80% on my portfolio.  How is that possible?  Easy, I sold everything in November based on solid technical analysis.

On to the analysis.

Yes it was a great few days, and the easy money is saying to themselves yes, here is the turnaround, I need to get back in. Rushing to get back in without real confirmation is what makes you lose money.

To be fair an inexperienced trader, might look at this weekly chart and say to themselves, “3 weeks of positive uptrend means the bulls are back”.

But if you look at the underlying supply and demand we see there is no indication of a turnaround yet. We are in an incredibly volatile market suitable only for day traders.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI)Rate of Change (ROC) and Cumulative Money Flow (CMF) all confirm the downtrend will remain as the underlying supply is still outstripping demand.

Yes, the market is looking oversold but that is no guarantee of a turnaround.

There is a long way to go before entering the Ichimoku Cloud and the start of a new uptrend

S&P 500 - Showing No Signs Of A Reversal
S&P 500 – Showing No Signs Of A Reversal

The Stock Market Today: Netflix – Worth Watching. The Shows & The Stock

January 8th, 2019

Of all the streaming services we have, Netflix is deemed uncancellable by my wife and daughter. As well as watching the shows it is also worth watching the stock.

On this weekly chart, we can see Netflix has been pummeled and successfully completed the head and shoulders top as indicated in the chart. (I flagged this in October)

Also in the chart, you can see I flagged a negative divergence in ROC and CMF dating back to the start of the head and shoulders in April 2018.

In technical analysis, the theory goes that the fall after the head and shoulders top will be as deep as the shoulders are wide. That remains to be seen with Netflix.

Netflix - Showing Signs Of Emerging From The 6 Month Abyss
Netflix – Showing Signs Of Emerging From The 6 Month Abyss

Interestingly what we do see is the small positive divergence occurring after yesterdays big spike. This indicates a potential early entry point.

It is early days yet, so enter at your own risk, but it could be a good sign.

As we everything, if the market continues strongly bearish, then NFLX could be dragged down with it.

 

The U.S. Stock Market Today:WARNING: Serious Downside Possible Says, Top Italian Mathematician

December 6th, 2018

Breaking news, a world-famous Italian mathematician by the name of Signore Fibonacci is suggesting there is more downside to the U.S. stock markets.

Using Mr. Fibonacci’s magic numbers, from the 2016 low on the SPY we see that the retracement fits very well mapping out the support levels if the market continues to tank.

The 23% retracement of the last major trend is broken. Next stop is 38% or even 50% retracement of the trend down to 2400 points.

Interesting also to see the one year RSI divergence in place and showing no signs of recovery.

It does not have to be this way, some major macroeconomic news could change this. But the only news the market wants is rate cuts. And rate cuts are not good for the long-term.

Signori Fibonacci Suggests a bear market
Signori Fibonacci Suggests a bear market

Mr. Market will need to take his medicine to get better.

Current Trends According To DOW Theory
Short-term – Down
Medium Term – Down
Long-Term – Up

Remember, all you traders make up only 10% of the volume of the markets. The biggest losers in the crash are the hedge funds and mutual funds and all the Algo Trader living on borrowed money.

Do not stay invested hoping for an up move, that will hurt.

As our Italian friend would say – MAMA MIA

The U.S. Stock Market Today: Dear Tech Stocks – You Are Causing Me Alarm

December 6th, 2018

Out of the major indices, the Nasdaq 100 is the first to kick of the Bear Market Signal I use in my system.

As you can see the signal is not 100% perfect, there were 3 false alarms since 2007, although they were at points where the market could have gone south.

Looking at the Ichimoku Cloud , which I personally like as an indicator, the index has not passed through the bottom (yet) so there is some hope there.

Overall, we could be heading for a disaster. As the next major support level under here is 2015 @ 4750.

But with the Fed getting dovish and to be honest company earnings are still great with unemployment at a low, I believe this too shall pass.

But it is a percentage game of risk right now and it is 50/50. Is that a risk you want to take?

The last crash was a complete systemic failure. I do not see that happening yet.

Although my good friend @the_unwind reminds us that robotic algorithms are responsible for 80% of all volume on the US markets. 

What money are they using? 

Borrowed money.

The Nasdaq 100 is the first to trigger the stock market crash detector bear indicator
The Nasdaq 100 is the first to trigger the stock market crash detector bear indicator

If the market does crash hard it could be 1929 all over again…. all the Algo Trading on borrowed and leveraged money.

Sound familiar.

Anyway, enjoy your day

The U.S. Stock Market Today: Activision Getting Battered – It Could Get Worse

December 6th, 2018

Activision, especially subsidiary Blizzard make great games, so my son tells me. But their financials certainly are not to be played with.

Short-term Trend – Down
Medium-term Trend – Down
Long-Term Trend – Up

Price way below the Ichimoku Cloud
Stock Market Crash Detector Indicator – RED

If you are still holding onto ATVI it may be a year or two before you recoup the loss. You can, of course, invest more to dollar average the loss.

For those looking to get in, the risk-reward is a potential drop of another 20% versus and upside of 60% to 80% over the next year to 18 months.

Let’s be clear, ATVI has not formed a bottom so buying now as a medium-term investment is catching a falling knife.

Activision Chart - Catching A Falling Knife
Activision Chart – Catching A Falling Knife

Early signs are that their latest call of duty is a smash hit, but Christmas is around the corner we shall see.

So enough of the games, it may be just a little too early to play with Activision.

Stay safe

The U.S. Stock Market Today: Is the Trump Rally Faltering & Why?

November 20th, 2018

As the Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy by hiking interest rates, we are seeing tremors in the stock market.  Sometimes tremors are the prelude to a full earthquake, but often not.  We are in our 11th year without an earthquake, but we sure have had a few tremors since then.  July 2011, July 2015, January 2016, Feb 2018 and of course now October/November 2018.  The wisest economists attribute it to the Federal Reserve and it’s is hard to disagree.  Our roundup of expert opinion on “Trumps stock market rally” revealed some interesting insights about the Federal Reserve rate hikes that are believed by economists to be scaring the markets.

I argue that our western economies have become Fed Rate Intolerant (FRI).  Over the last 30 years, the peak at which rate hikes have triggered earthquakes has gone from 10% in 1988, to 6% in 2000, to 5% in 2007.  By that rationale, rates hitting 3% now could cause the seismograph to wobble, and we are two-thirds of the way there already.  I mean could you even imagine a base rate of 5% today.  This would mean you would have to pay 7% interest on your house.  It would translate into a real-estate and stock market catastrophe.  The last 20 years have driven huge improvements in the quality of life of all of the free world, and improvements some dictatorships e.g. China, Jerome Powell, do you want to throw that away?

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From A Tremor To An Earthquake. Who Woke The Bear? by liberatedstocktrader on TradingView.com

The U.S. Stock Market Today: Has the Trump Administration Been Good for Stocks?

November 18th, 2018

Our latest article on the Donald Trump Stock Market Rally try’s to discover if President Trump has really had any influence over the stock market, or if the market would have continued its bull run with or without him. I collected 9 opinions from CEOs to Hedge Fund managers and more.  There are some core themes that run through the opinions.

Trump has positively influenced the stock market:

  • by cutting corporate taxes, which encourages business to spend more and hire more
  • by reducing red tape
  • by swaying public opinion that he is pro-business

Trump has had no influence on the stock market because:

  • it is all down to the loose monetary policy from previous years
  • the creation of credit out of thin air fuels the animal spirits of the market

The U.S. Market Today: What is Causing the Stock Market Volatility?

November 2nd, 2018

The hypothesis is that the current market volatility is caused by a mix of factors, the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates or even trade wars. But in essence, the economy is in pretty good health.

I believe it to be a mix two different factors.

  1. Firstly, there is instability of leadership at the moment, the mid-terms are approaching and an increasingly polarised electorate do not have clear visibility as to what comes next, and if you cannot clearly envision the future that causes fear.
  2. Secondly, the market is in it’s simplest form starting to get over-valued. If we look at the Shiller Price Earnings Ratio for the S&P500 we can clearly see that the market is at an overvaluation exactly the same as the start of the great depression in 1929 and only 11 points away from the peak of the Dotcom hype.

Stock Market Today – Is the US Stock Market Overpriced – Using the PE Ratio

September 14th, 2018

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$SPY Overpriced based on the Schiller PE ratio by liberatedstocktrader on TradingView.com

These two factors make investors nervous, that breeds fear which breeds volatility.

Apple Takes One Hell of a Beating and it’s Not Over.

Over the past few days, I was actually starting to consider a move from cash to stocks, but my analysis told me that this mini-crash will not be solved in a few days. So I waited and took some short positions. Then this happens. At the time of writing Apple’s capitalization is down circa $60 billion. There is extreme fear in this market and nerves are all around. Ultimately the Apple cash cow is actually reasonably priced with a PE Ratio of 19 and prospects are not that bad. What you have to remember is it is not the reality, it is the market participants perception of reality that matters. It is great to be a contrarian investor, but only at the right time.

Apple $APPL Chart commentary. 
From August 2018 the RSI and CMF showed strong negative divergence from the price trend. I held Apple and sold circa 18 days ago because of the increasing volatility in the FANGS and the markets. What is also bad is the exit of Apple’s price down through the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud.

Long-term the Liberated Stock Trader Crash Detector has stopped saying Bull trend and is waiting to confirm the big bear trend. But we are not there yet. The shock warning is a precursor to that.

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AAPL Apple Takes One Hell of a Beating and its Not Over. by liberatedstocktrader on TradingView.com

Hold onto your pants for this ride and don’t catch a falling knife.

U.S. Stock Market Outlook and Trends

  • Short-Term Trend (days to weeks) – Downtrend
  • Medium-Term (weeks to months) – Sideways
  • Long-Term (months to years) – Uptrend

The U.S. Stock Market Today: Mini or Maxi Crash – which do you expect? De Ja Vu 2016

October 26th, 2018

The only question today is how much of a crash will we have to endure, or should I say profit from as traders? The problem is as a short seller, it is the toughest way to make money. The market goes up by default as there are millions of people working every day in these companies to add value and make profits and earn the money that feeds their families and gives them an improved quality of life. It is in the vested interests of humanity that the stock market goes up.

However, there are also times when the people investing in those companies (the market participants) lose their confidence. Negative sentiment and fear in the stock market kick in and suddenly we are into panic mode.

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Mini or Maxi Crash – which do you expect? De Ja Vu 2016 $SP500 by liberatedstocktrader on TradingView.com

But, when we take a look at the technical analysis this backs the fear up. The supply and demand as shown in the technical indicators through negative divergencies are clear. Let’s compare the mini-crash of 2016 with today. On the left of the chart we see:
1. Stock price rising
2. Flat RSI
3. Strong CMF 0.03% negative Divergence

Fast forward to 2018:
1. Stock prices rising
2. Strong RSI negative divergence
3. Strong CMF 0.03% Negative Divergence

The technical analysis points to at least a mini-crash, and who knows what potential size of a maxi-crash.

Note that point 4 on the right sees the price on the weekly chart enter the Ichimoku cloud from the top, which is never a good sign.

I am nearly a perma-bull, but just not right now. Hold on to your pants it is going to be one hell of a ride.

US Market Outlook and Trends

  • Short-Term Trend (days to weeks) – Downtrend (new)
  • Medium-Term (weeks to months) – Sideways (new)
  • Long-Term (months to years) – Uptrend

Gold Breakout Confirms Rush to Safety

October 26th, 2018

The current panic in the stock market is fueling the rise of the conspiracy theorists, who fundamentally believe that moving to gold 0.06% will safeguard their future when the bomb drops and they need to pay for fuel in gold 0.06% coins. Unfortunately for them, this is never going to happen (or if it does I will be long gone).

However, there is a sudden perk up in the technicals for gold 0.06 %, both RSI and CMF 0.03% are showing that the GOLD 0.06% RUSH is starting. Having spent the last 5 years in a bear market this could be something to enjoy. But let’s not get too excited, $gld is way below the Ichimoku cloud, and it will take time to turn around your devastating bear attack.

I am remaining neutral on this. There is a sign of something good, but gold’s fate is in the hands of the stock market.

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$GLD Showing Sign of Revival – But Don’t Hold Your Breath by liberatedstocktrader on TradingView.com

US Stock Market Today: Mind the GAP – A Lesson on Gap Analysis using Netflix

October 15th, 2018

The chart below highlights some great textbook gaps to observe in the Netflix stock price chart. We can see the breakaway gap, the continuation gaps, exhaustion and island reversal gaps. But what does it all mean? Ultimately the gaps indicate strong sentiment and there is plenty of that with Netflix right now.  I have Netflix at home, it is great, I love the service, the content and business model of the company.  I think the future is very bright for the company. As a long-term buy and hold it is a no-brainer to own this stock.  But as a trader the short-term is not so bright.

Interestingly though this could all change with tomorrows earnings report. So why not buy today and enjoy the ride upwards tomorrow? Well, because it is 50/50 which way the stock will go. Better wait for earnings and enjoy the longer-term moves with a lot less risk. The big profits are not made in a day they are in weeks months and years.

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Mind the GAP – A Lesson on Gap Analysis using Netflix by liberatedstocktrader on TradingView.com

The Next Recession- Economist Front Cover

October 15th, 2018

Everyone is starting to panic about the next coming recession, even the Economist Magazine jumped on the bandwagon with an issue front cover showing “The Next Recession – How bad will it be”. They claim it will be bad, and difficult to resolve because many of the tools of QE etc are already in use. It is fair comment and well written, but they did not mention the when. And this is a crux of the matter, the best economists in the world never know when.

So to all of you out there starting to panic, this is a reminder. On the chart see, “this is not a crash” and “this is a crash”. By my estimate the S&P500 would need to shed at least another 250 points to below 2500 to move into the stinky zone where my stock market crash detector system will trigger.

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The Next Recession- Economist Front Cover by liberatedstocktrader on TradingView.com

US Stock Market Today: Faangs Leading the Nasdaq Lower

October 10th, 2018

When the best companies falter it is a sign for the broader market. With negative divergences on the supporting indicators, price is proving the new short-term downturn. Supreme court shenanigans, Brexit or trade deal politics do not necessarily explain it. Interest rate hikes go some way towards it, but ultimately it is a traders market. Traders, Hedge funds and Algo’s account for 90% of market traffic and volume and they all spot a downside deal. The economy is in rude health, but the S&P500 -1.95%is also approaching overpriced. Sometimes a break is needed to catch your breath, sometimes a pause looks like a crash. It is not a crash yet, as we do not have longer-term evidence. We will see over the next week or two.

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Fangs Leading the Nasdaq Lower by liberatedstocktrader on TradingView.com


Amazon’s 11% drop in 9 Days & 2 Days of Bear Market Indicator

October 10th, 2018

While Amazon is a great company, no doubt, the technicals tell us that the short term trend is down. Buyers are just not that into you at these prices and PE. Negative divergences on the indicators and the “Stock Market Crash Detector” registering 2 days of Bear Market. I sold my holding of Amazon last week, so will be waiting for a buy-in over the next weeks, when the market participants change their sentiment.

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$AMZN 11% drop in 9 Days & 2 Days Of Bear Indicator by liberatedstocktrader on TradingView.com

Dear NVIDIA, I love you but I think we need a break

October 10th, 2018

I love NVIDIA as a company and their future outlook. I really enjoyed the last year of owning them. But sometimes even a great relationship needs a break and I took that break last week. Divergent indicators are a first indicator that the relationship is getting tired. I definitely see this relationship restarting, and I will be watching you (not like a stalker 🙂 but like a big brother), when you show signs of improvement at my support levels I will hunt you down.  Good luck and keep producing fantastic tech.

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Dear $NVDA I love you but I think we need a break by liberatedstocktrader on TradingView.com

US Market Outlook and Trends

  • Short-Term Trend (days to weeks) – Downtrend (new)
  • Medium-Term (weeks to months) – Uptrend
  • Long-Term (months to years) – Uptrend

US Stock Market Today: Is Mr. S&P 500 thinking about a repeat of January 2018?

October 8th, 2018

Using Technical Chart Analysis with all plotted indicators still strongly negatively divergent, we should not forget that at the beginning of this year the index dropped 12% in 2 weeks. Incidentally, that was also from the all-time high for the index. Potential short-term/mid-term retracement looks to be on the cards.  Expect some downside in the coming days and weeks.

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Is MR S&P500 thinking about a repeat of January 2018 by liberatedstocktrader on TradingView.com

Decision Time for Mr. Market – Russell 2000 – Up or Down

October 8th, 2018

I have marked the potential downside support lines for the next bear move of the Rusell 2000 which is leading the pullback. There is, of course, nothing to stop a huge piece of macroeconomic news changing the direction to upwards continuation, but the technicals say otherwise. Markets are losing impetus at these levels.

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Decision Time for Mr Market – Russell 2000 – Up or Down by liberatedstocktrader on TradingView.com


US Market Outlook and Trends

  • Short-Term Trend (days to weeks) – Sideways
  • Medium-Term (weeks to months) – Uptrend
  • Long-Term (months to years) – Uptrend

US Stock Market Today: New High for the Markets, No Crash Yet But Indications are Becoming Evident

October 2nd, 2018

Whilst not being bearish at the moment, because the stock price is the most important indicator, one has to consider other indicators to get an understanding of the underlying flow of supply and demand.

As a technical analyst, you are taught that you should use different indicators to be able to understand if the direction of the price trend is supported by the underlying supply and demand.

Typically you should use a price indicator and a price volume indicator. In this instance, I am using RSIROC and Chaikin Money Flow (which is a price volume indicator). Here, we can see clearly 3 indicators all different in nature, and they are all diverging with the price direction. Price is moving up.

But the indicators show new highs, new lows and new highs & lows compared with volume (all are focused on supply and demand ) are going down. As Charles Dow with DOW Theory suggested the indexes (DJIA & DJ30) need to confirm. So it is with professional chart analysis, the indicators need to confirm.

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Loving the $SPY Rally – Not Loving the Negative Divergences by liberatedstocktrader on TradingView.com


And right now they suggest a medium term pullback, not today or even tomorrow, but sometime soon.

I am still long for now until the Liberated Stock Trader Crash Detector System (Red & Green Horizontal Line / Dots Below Price) tell me otherwise.

Follow me on TradingView for regular updates @liberatedstocktrader

US Stock Market Today: The Power of Divergence in Stock Analysis

September 26th, 2018

I am currently holding Nvidia (Ticker:NVDA) with a handsome profit, such a great company. But my system indicates severe divergences between price and the RSI / ROC indicators. Both lower indicators are not confirming the move which is a concern. I am holding for now, but I have been warned.

FYI the Red Line below indicates a bear market, green indicates a bull market, shock means a warning on the downside. This system is back tested over 100 years and works very well.

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The Power of Divergence $NVDA by liberatedstocktrader on TradingView.com

Stock Market Today – Is the US Stock Market Overpriced – Using the PE Ratio

September 14th, 2018

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$SPY Overpriced based on the Schiller PE ratio by liberatedstocktrader on TradingView.com

The market, viewed through the lens of the 500 biggest companies in the U.S.A., is approaching a very high valuation historically, up there with the 1929 great depression and the Dotcom bust.  Interestingly the financial crisis was not due to the overvaluation of the stock market but the integrity of the financial system itself. It is a good thing this was a great earnings season because if it wasn’t there could be a serious pullback or re-adjustment.

The bears are scred away for now, hold and enjoy.

US Stock Market Today – Bears Everywhere, But No Technical Evidence to Support a Crash.

September 10th, 2018

I see a strong increase in negative sentiment in the markets, the permanent bears are starting to come out of hibernation to roar “there is a crash comings get out now”. But the problem is as of now they are wrong.  There is neither fundamental nor technical evidence that the market will go into a meltdown.

Fundamental Analysis of the US Economy

According to the Economist.com

“It has been a bumper earnings season for America Inc. Second-quarter earnings per share for S&P 500 companies are expected to be 25% higher than a year ago, boosted largely by a big corporate-tax cut. A healthy global economy has also helped—for those firms that break out revenue by country, 39% of sales are made outside America. But clouds loom. The direct impact of the tax cut will fade; turmoil in Turkey and concerns about tariffs have pushed up the value of the dollar, which may depress American multinationals’ overseas earnings. Profits in the oil industry, however, are likely to remain strong, reflecting the effect of production cuts on oil prices.”

So there are no real red flags here.

Technical Analysis of the US Stock Market – S&P 500

Using the Liberated Stock Trader Stock Market Crash Detector System, which has successfully predicted all the major stock market crashes since 1929, we see there are no indications at the moment of a severe crash.

S&P 500-22 Year US Stock Market Analysis
S&P 500-22 Year US Stock Market Analysis

The chart above is for 22 years of stock market data on the S&P500 index.  It includes 2 serious crashes (bear markets) and 2 mini-crisis the Euro Crisis and the China and Greece scare in 2015/2016.  On all 4 occasions, the crash detector (indicated by the horizontal red lines) was correct.  The little yellow markets underneath the red lines are alert signals, they are triggered when the market prices drop more than a certain percentage in any one week.

The key point here is that most people look at the market on a day to day basis, which is entirely pointless.  The daily short-term index price movements are like the ripples on the sea. The medium-term trends (weeks to months) are like the waves on the sea.  However, the long-term trend (months to years) is the tide.  As as we all know the when the tide changes all the waves and ripples move with it.

The tide has not changed the market is in an uptrend until the market tells us otherwise.  The bears although awake and roaring can go for a further sleep until further notice.

US Market Outlook and Trends

  • Short-Term Trend (days to weeks) – Sideways
  • Medium-Term (weeks to months) – Uptrend
  • Long-Term (months to years) – Uptrend

US Stock Market Today: Business as Usual?

August 18th, 2018

It has been a mixed week on the markets, with the major Indexes DJ-30 up 1.3% and the S&P 500 up 0.55%, however, the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.17% and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.56%.  What does that tell us?  Well, not too much really.  The VIX Volatility Index is however around 12 which within normal bounds.  The Nasdaq ($NSAD) and NYSE ($NYAD) Advance-Decline Lines are roughly confirming the slight positive moves.

S&P 500 Index – A Closer Look Analysis

There is a lot of talk about a major reversal, but this is just Mr. Market’s fear gene kicking in. Technically we are in a good place, short-term trend (Days to Weeks) is lateral. Medium-term trend (weeks to months) is up and so is the long-term Trend (months to years). There is a slightly negative RSI divergence which could indicate a little retracement of stocks over the next week. The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) is hovering at 12 so nothing to be concerned about.

S&P 500 Market Analysis
Technically we are in a good place, short-term trend (Days to Weeks) is lateral. Medium-term trend (weeks to months) is up and so is the long-term Trend (months to years). There is a slightly negative RSI divergence which could indicate a little retracement of stocks over the next week. The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) is hovering at 12 so nothing to be concerned about.

Chart Supplied By Our Review Winning TradingView Partner

Market Outlook and Trends

  • Short-Term Trend (days to weeks) – Sideways
  • Medium-Term (weeks to months) – Uptrend
  • Long-Term (months to years) – Uptrend

US Stock Market Today: FAANGs in the News but are they still worth Buying?

July 30th, 2018

Netflix continues to get hammered for slightly missing new subscriber growth, Facebook’s announcement that it will refocus on the user experience causes bear sentiment and lastly, Google misses top line growth.  These events in this earnings season see the introduction of what the Economist Magazine appropriately calls the Techlash.  The backlash against the corporate technology giants, whose businesses are so pervasive in the western world, that my 12-year-old daughter here in Germany knows each of their logo’s and what they do.  They are the titans of the new technology-driven world.

But let’s not get too ahead of ourselves.

Our 45 point fundamental comparison of the FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix Google) will explain to you why they are actually in fantastic health and the stock price drop is just another reason to buy.

Market Outlook and Trends

  • Short-Term Trend (days to weeks) – Sideways
  • Medium-Term (weeks to months) – Uptrend
  • Long-Term (months to years) – Uptrend

US Stock Market Today: FANGs Challenged but Surviving

July 24th, 2018

Powered by the FANGS (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google) the Nasdaq continues to power higher.  However, there are been challenges to the FANGS in the last few months that should not go unrecognized.

  • Facebook came under severe pressure, yet ultimately only a telling off regarding the unethical selling of user data to Cambridge Analytica
  • Amazon is always under pressure from the public regarding the way it treats employees and its damaging effect on the high street
  • Netflix has seen a 15% stock price drop since missing it’s predicted subscriber numbers
  • Google has been fined a record $5 Billion by the EU for illegally tieing its App Store to the Android

Ultimately with the balance sheets and income these companies have, they can shrug off a lot of pressure.  Find out more about the FANGS and read out 36 point fundamentals comparison. 

Nasdaq 100 & Composite Break Into New Highs

Ooh, La La – The French are Best at Football, the American’s are Best at Business.

July 16th, 2018

As expected the Nasdaq indices have broken new highs.  It is a great time and indeed has been a great time over the last 9 years to be an investor in the U.S. Stock Markets, especially the Nasdaq and to be even more precise the Nasdaq 100.

The Nasdaq 100 has returned 32% in the last 12 months.  But how are the rest doing?

  • The S&P500 has managed to muster 16%
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJ30) has clawed its way to 18%
  • The UK FTSE 100 has managed a miserable 3% due to BREXIT
  • The German DAX has managed less than 1% off its high of 9%, due to trade war fears.
  • China’s Hang Seng has managed 12%, although that is off the 32% intra-year high, again due to trade war fears.
  • France’s CAC 40 has driven in the latter half of the year to 12% based on the Macron Optimism

It would seem every one fears the trade war, except the U.S.A. where business is booming.

Why don’t we get even more precise as to “Who are the Superbowl winning teams of the Nasdaq”?

In short, the FANG’s (Facebook, Amazon, NetFlix, Google), but are they leading the charge?

  • Facebook has managed 41%
  • Google (Alphabet) crafted 31%
  • Amazon powered to 92%
  • Netflix exploded 173%

Yes, they are.

Netflix is the new Disney, but better, with a bigger spending budget and much lower overhead.  Facebook rode the storm, but I see darker times ahead for the social network.  No one crawls the web and pushes adverts like Google.  And Amazon, well it’s Amazon, I literally spend such a proportion of my disposable cash with Amazon that I must consciously make an effort to support local business by buying locally just so everyone is not unemployed.

Market Outlook and Trends

  • Short-Term Trend (days to weeks) – Uptrend 
  • Medium-Term (weeks to months) – Sideways – but looking positive
  • Long-Term (months to years) – Uptrend

Overall Market Outlook – Positive

Stock Market Today – Nasdaq 100 & Composite Challenging for New Highs

July 9th, 2018

For those who were panicking the fear is slowing ebbing away.  However, I was not concerned.  As previously stated the U.S. Economy is in rude health and believe it or not Trump is actually walking a fine line in berating foreign governments over trade, defense spending, and immigration.  This is causing foreign powers to consider the U.S. as not simply an easy ride, but a country you have to play fair with.   This could benefit the U.S. economy in the long run as the abuse of free trade agreements are more rigorously adhered to and the domestic economy starts to pick up.

The Market likes Trumponomics.

Chart Below shows the Nasdaq Gapping Up today, which is very positive (bullish).  All major U.S: Indexes have surged over 2% in the last 3 days.

Nasdaq 100 Challenging for New Highs
Nasdaq 100 Challenging for New Highs

Market Outlook and Trends

  • Short-Term Trend (days to weeks) – Uptrend 
  • Medium-Term (weeks to months) – Sideways
  • Long-Term (months to years) – Uptrend

Overall Market Outlook – Positive

Analysis – Netflix, King of the FANGS?

June 29, 2018

The NASDAQ 100 is down 3.05% from the new all-time high on the 20th June 2018.   It is completely natural for the market to test new highs, retreat and take another run at it.  From my analysis, the market outlook is still positive.

There is no change to the major market trend from my last update.

This was the week that NETFLIX appeared on the cover of the Economist magazine entitled “Netflix – The Tech Giant Everyone is Watching”.

An interesting article in which the lead premise was that the other FANG’s (Facebook, Amazon, Google) could learn a lot from Netflix in terms of managing privacy and it’s business model that does not involve selling user data.

So, the media starts churning out articles on Netflix.  I actually responded to a reporter from Forbes Magazine on my thoughts on:

Is Netflix Overvalued?

To Answer the question we should perhaps compare Netflix to a competitor, Disney.

Netflix is priced for continued strong growth, sure the Price Earnings Ratio is 262, which is significantly higher than Disney’s reasonable 14.

This does suggest that Netflix is overvalued, but the reason the stock price is so high is because the growth trajectory Netflix has enjoyed since 2002 is huge. In fact, Netflix had an excellent EPS growth last year of 96% compared to Disney’s 30%. The P/E ratio of Netflix looks more like that of Amazon (AMZN) who as a company has always had a P/E Ratio of 200+, Amazon could be also considered expensive, but it isn’t because it manages to maintain phenomenal continued growth.

Is there still room for growth for Netflix The driver for long-term growth is in the content business. Companies like Disney make great profits on content and Netflix knows this. The significant investments in Netflix Originals is a move into markets like Disney’s.

Disney generates an operating income of $4.4 billion, whereas Netflix generates only $400 million. That is a potential revenue source for Netflix of over 10 times the size it is generating if it can eat into Disney’s.

Ultimately, Netflix is priced as a discretionary purchase of $9.99 in the USA, and most people have it alongside other providers. Future planned price rises may be a risk, but ultimately the service is fast, the user experience is first class and the content broad and entertaining enough for everyone.

Disclosure: I have owned Stock in Netflix since 2017

Market Outlook and Trends

  • Short-Term Trend (days to weeks) – Downtrend
  • Medium-Term (weeks to months) – Sideways
  • Long-Term (months to years) – Uptrend

Overall Market Outlook – Positive

Stock Market Today – Analysis – Keep Calm & Carry On

June 25, 2018

Of course, as soon as we hit new highs on the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100, they turn about-face and drive downwards.  It’s no surprise.  Trumpian economics is based on smoke and mirrors and this will from time to time cause insecurity in the markets.

Despite Trump (not because of him), the U.S. economy is still in rude health, but it is overextended having been in a non-stop bull market for the last 10 years.

There are no Shock Event Warnings in the “Stock Market Crash Detector System” and no signs of a Bear Market Alert.  We are experiencing an inevitable correction after hitting new highs on the NASDAQ.

For Traders, it could be time to employ some short-term and volatility focused short trades.  For investors hold tight and grab some bargains as you see fit, there are no signs of the doomsday machine being cranked up.

Market Outlook and Trends

  • Short-Term Trend (days to weeks) – Downtrend
  • Medium-Term (weeks to months) – Sideways
  • Long-Term (months to years) – Uptrend

Overall Market Outlook – Positive

Stock Market Today – Analysis – NASDAQ New Highs, Why?

June 11, 2018

Time to celebrate, it was NEW HIGH DAY for the NASDAQ Composite (Ticker:COMPQX) and my favorite Index the NASDAQ 100 (Ticker:NDX-X) on the 8th June 2018.

Why is the NASDAQ 100 my favorite Index?

Because it is packed with fantastic companies with strong market dominance and a great future outlook, plus  Let’s take a look at the companies that dominate the NASDAQ 100.

Apple Inc. (Ticker:AAPL) – Capitalization $950 Billion – 10 Year Return 1524%. 

A great company that continues to defy the odds, and against all expectations continues to drive forward without Steve Jobs.  High markets and a strong Apple Fan Community ensures Apple will have to do a lot wrong to lose this market dominance.

Amazon Inc (Ticker:AMZN) – Capitalization $820 Billion – 10 Year Return 4,444%. 

A company that dominates the retail markets it enters and the biggest retail business on the planet.  With world class logistics and a retail market maker for everything.  Not only that, Amazon Web Services is growing to dominate the web world with it’s industry leading on-demand hosting, data processing and global content network.  Add Amazon Prime Delivery, Video (not as good as Netflix but trying), Amazon Audible for Audio Content, and even the impressive rise of Alexa smart speakers, Amazon is a company that dominates nearly every market it enters.

The only thing that thwarts investors is the insanely high Price Earnings Ratio, currently at 133.  But that never really mattered with Amazon, it has always been excessively high, Besos manages to drive business results by substituting huge profits for business growth.  Low margins and continual massive investment in infrastructure and services means market dominance with lower margins.

Alphabet Inc* (Ticker:GOOG/GOOGL) – Capitalization $784 Billion – 10 Year Return 812%

We all know where Alphabet makes its money; online advertising, in fact, it is the biggest advertising agency in the world.  With practically zero competition in the western worlds search engine advertising market, Google’s profits and growth look set to continue.  It also has the majority of smartphones in the world running Android.  Google has also tried many other markets, admittedly with little success, such as Google+, Chrome Cast, Google Play Store Movies and Music and Google Home.  But with all that advertising revenue who cares.

Microsoft Corp (Ticker:MSFT) – Capitalization $775 Billion – 10 Year Return 580%

Despite the rumors, the death of Microsoft has been grossly exaggerated.  The PC has not died, the server and enterprise market is still alive with 70% of the world’s business’ running on Microsoft Servers and Databases.  Microsoft Office is still in rude health with most corporations and small businesses and everything in between literally running on Microsoft Excel, Powerpoint and Microsoft Exchange.  Failures in Smartphone and Tablets have not dented Microsofts long-term outlook.

Facebook Inc:  (Ticker:FB) – Capitalization $544 Billion – 6 Year Return 321%

Love it or hate it, and it seems more people are starting to hate it, Facebook is still a huge success.  The biggest social network in the world and indeed the biggest website in the world, the recent privacy concerns have not even made a dent in the stock price.  Seems that most people do not really care enough about privacy to stop using facebook, or facebook’s growth in new countries is masking the numbers leaving in Europe and the USA.

Other fantastic companies to mention are Intel (349%), Cisco (225%), Nvidia (4340%)*, Paypal (178%)* and Netflix (13420%)*

The list goes on, but suffice to say there is a reason the NASDAQ 100 outperformed all U.S. Exchanges and Indices over the last 20 years.

It is because these companies defy traditional business models and can generate outsize profits and growth by utilizing technology.  The Dot.com bust of 2000 taught technology companies how to survive and harness the Web for hyper-effective business process and reach.

Now and over the last 20 years, the hype has come to fruition.

*Disclosure – I currently own this Stock

Market Outlook and Trends

  • Short-Term Trend (days to weeks) – Uptrend
  • Medium-Term (weeks to months) – Sideways (but starting to show signs of an early uptrend)
  • Long-Term (months to years) – Uptrend

Overall Market Outlook – Positive

Stock Market Today – Analysis – Stability

3 June 2018

Having returned from my vacation in sunny Andalucia Spain, it is good to know that my last update is still ringing true, “I still do not believe there is nothing to worry about for now”.

In the last 4 weeks, the NASDAQ Composite is up 4.58% the NASDAQ 100, up 4.52%.  The S&P-500 is up 2.61% but the DJ-30 is lagging with a 1.58% gain.  The VIX Volatility Index has also averaged 13 over the last 4 weeks which indicates increased stability.

Market Outlook and Trends

  • Short-Term Trend (days to weeks) – Uptrend (Changed)
  • Medium-Term (weeks to months) – Sideways (but starting to show signs of an early uptrend)
  • Long-Term (months to years) – Uptrend

Overall Market Outlook – Positive

 

Stock Market Today – Analysis – Worst Investing Tips – China Rocks

4 May 2018

The U.S. Markets continue their sideways momentum, with bulls and bears maintaining their fight for dominance.  There is no terribly bad macroeconomic news.  The U.S. Economy created 164,000 new jobs in April, lower than expected, but not a crisis and unemployment is now at a 20 year low under 4%.  Also, surprisingly Apple boosted the markets with a serious earnings beat and gapped up 4%.  In terms of price volatility we are seeing it, reflected in the CBOE VIX Volatility Index which in good times oscillates around the  15 mark, right now it is around the 20 mark, however, we saw it today plummet to 11 before bouncing higher. So, no crisis here either.

The Dow Jones 30 is finding a channel bottom at 23,500 and is testing the 200 days moving average, we do not want to see that base broken as it would be a bullish sign.

I still do not believe there is nothing to worry about for now.  Buy those stocks on the dip.

  • Short-Term Trend (days to weeks) – Sideways
  • Medium-Term (weeks to months) – Sideways
  • Long-Term (months to years) – Uptrend

I recently provided feedback to a reporter on the question of bad stock advice.  I think my reply will be of interest to you.

What are some of the worst investing tips out there?

One of the worst pieces of advice I hear is “Invest in China Stocks, China is the future.” This is bad advice for a number of reasons:

  1. Over the past 6 years, hundreds of Chinese Companies have been launched onto the US stock markets through reverse mergers. Many of these stocks have been found to seriously overstate their earning and profits.
  2. Because of limited oversight of Chinese companies and an inability to investigate them, these types of investments are highly risky.
  3. The SEC has limited ability to investigate these companies as they are located in China
  4. While I am sure there are good Chinese Companies out there, discerning the good from the bad is a big challenge and not worth taking the risk on. Activist Short Traders have even been targeting Alibaba (the Chinese eBay) a flagship Chinese Company, calling into question it’s Book Keeping & Financial Reporting

These issues have been highlighted in the Film documentary “China Hustle” and every student looking to invest should watch this excellent movie. My advise if you want to invest in individual stocks is do your due diligence and invest in great U.S. companies, there are plenty to choose from.

Stock Market Today – Analysis – Nothing to Worry About

21 April 2018

As the fears of a possible crushing trade war start to recede, the TV talking heads on Bloomberg are now suggesting the recent pullback in the U.S. markets are due to the risk of rising inflation and with that the risk of the Federal Funds Rate rising to combat inflation and cool the economy.  There may be an element of truth to this speculation, but the fact is the market is not really overpriced right now.

When you look at the S&P Price Earnings Ratio of 23.8 it is neither overpriced or too cheap.  Sure is has risen constantly over the last 7 year, but so has the market and earnings.  It is simply a sign that the outlook for the markets is still strong.  On that note though, investors are starting to get nervous and we can see that in the increased price volatility.

If we look at market sentiment, via Stocktwits, for example, we can see that traders and investors are split between 60% bearish and 40% bullish.

Lastly, we can see a large possible Head & Shoulders top starting to form in the major indexes.  So keep an eye out for that.

I believe there is nothing to worry about for now.  Buy those stocks on the dip.

  • Short-Term Trend (days to weeks) – Sideways – New
  • Medium-Term (weeks to months) – Sideways
  • Long-Term (months to years) – Uptrend

Stock Market Today – Analysis – China Trade War

17 April 2018

It has been 8 days since my last update.  The U.S. markets have given us little to worry about during this period.  In fact, reviewing the major U.S. indexes, show that the short-term trend has changed from down-trend to up-trend.  Earnings Season is in full swing and Netflix (NFLX) beat significantly on subscriber numbers boosting the stock price 8%.  Netflix is my largest holding and I am up 87% since purchase on November 30th 2017, not a bad return for 18 weeks.

Looming Trade War with China

I recently spoke to a reporter on a suggestion for how to invest in the shadow of a looming U.S. trade war with China and here is what I said.

“One possible move is to invest in great stocks with zero china exposure. This means they are neither manufacturing in or exporting anything to China. A great investment example in this niche is Netflix, with incredibly strong domestic streaming and aggressive growth internationally. Netflix has no real exposure to China with the vast majority of revenue from the U.S 56.9% and the rest from Latin America, Europe & the UK. Netflix did announce a content licensing deal with Baidu which has 500 million Chinese subscribers, but this should not be subject to any tariffs.”

  • Short-Term Trend (days to weeks) – Uptrend – New
  • Medium-Term (weeks to months) – Sideways
  • Long-Term (months to years) – Uptrend

 

Stock Market Today – Analysis – Why the Nasdaq 100

09 April 2018

As investors, we must seek to buy stocks in the best markets which have the biggest probability of success.  In the U.S. and of all the developed economy stock markets the NASDAQ is the clear winner, with the Nasdaq 100 seriously outstripping the S&P500, DJ-30 and any European major index (see stock market statistics).  I currently invest in NASDAQ Stocks, and all my index and stock backtesting proves the NASDAQ is the place to be historically and I believe, in the future.  Why, because the top tech stocks can leverage their businesses and profit like no other.

I recently sold Facebook (FB) as the Cambridge Analytica News Broke,  sealing in a profit and protecting from the 16% decline so far.  It is actually the worse performing of my NASDAQ investments by far.

If you watch Bloomberg, you will have the impression that the market is in complete turmoil, but it is not really.  Sure we have a bull vs. bears fight and the VIX Volatility Index has doubled from 10 to 20, but it is not a great concern at the moment.

The Stock Market Crash Detector signaled a Shock Event Warning for the week of the 23rd of March, but no Bear Market Signal so far.  The Trump led trade war with China is the big outstanding risk to the market, but there are plenty of stocks that will not be seriously affected even if it goes ahead, such as NetFlix.  However, I believe that the trade war is a bargaining chip that Trump is “cleverly” using.  China does a lot of dumping on U.S. markets and it needs to back off, see the NetFlix Series “Rotten – Episode Garlic Breath” for an insight into dumping of Chinese Garlic in U.S. Markets.

No change in the market direction for now.

  • Short-Term Trend (days to weeks) – Downtrend
  • Medium-Term (weeks to months) – Sideways
  • Long-Term (months to years) – Uptrend

 

Stock Market Today – Analysis – Volatility

27 March 2018

Volatility is the name of the game in the Stock Market today.  A 1.73% drop in the S&P500 and a whopping 3.32% decline on the outperforming Nasdaq 100, signals we are starting to see what could be the start of a pullback in the markets.  The last decline like this was in January 2016 when the S&P500 rested on the 200 week moving average then began an epic 30% increase. This indicates that we could see a pullback of up to 15% unless the market participants fight back over the next few weeks.

  • Short-Term Trend – Downtrend
  • Medium-Term Sideways
  • Long-Term Uptrend

Stock Market Today – Analysis – Trump Trade Wars

26 March 2018

After a 9 day retreat in the U.S. Markets, overshadowed by the veil of a Trump led trade war, the market has bounced back with heroic ferocity.  While the financial media is screaming that the next market crash is here, in actuality, there is no technical evidence in the market for this.

The LST stock market crash detector, which is simply the best implementation of technical analysis to predict an impending market crash, did, in fact, register a Shock Event Warning – meaning an external impact and pre-cursor to a crash.  While this long-term bull market is not technically impacted we remain in a:

  • Short-Term Trend – Downtrend
  • Medium-Term Sideways
  • Long-Term Uptrend

(data delayed at least 15 minutes)

Do you want to Lean about how the Stock Market Works Today?

Take a look at our Stock Market Guide below, it will help you gain the knowledge you need.  If you want to fast-track your learning try our 16 Hour Intensive Video Training Course – Liberated Stock Trader PRO

Best Stock Market Training Profits

How To Use Our Stock Market Today Tools

Using Stock Market Today Tools

The US Stock Markets Today overview shows you the most important Indices and how they are performing today.  Click on any Index to jump to a detailed Chart, where you can plot indicators or even compared one Index to another

S&P500 – is the go-to index used by most people as it is the majority of the NYSE Company Capitalization.

NASDAQ 100 – is the major Index of the Nasdaq Stock Exchange with the top 100 technology companies.

Dow 30 – is the Industrial Index of the 30 biggest corporations on the NYSE.

Dow 20 Transport Index – This is the 20 biggest Transport & Logistics Companies. Look for medium to short-term divergencies in the DJ30 and the DJ20 according to Dow Theory

Nasdaq Composite – All of the Stocks on the Technology heavy Nasdaq Exchange

S&P 400 Mid Cap – The 400 medium sized companies on the NYSE

Using the Economic Calendar

Country Selection – Select the Globe to choose which country economic data you want to see.

The U.S. Economic data is usually a catalyst for markets across the globe, but if you trade a particular market select the one you are interested in.

Economic Data Description – Click on the Data to see a description of what it is and the impact of it.  The actuals vs Forcast is important.

If the Actual is less than Forecast then that could have a negative impact on the overall market direction.  See how the market reacts to the news.

Important Economic Data Only – it is easy to get carried away with economic data, even the best economists cannot predict how the data will affect the stock market.

By default, we have selected only important data, but you can change that by clicking the Globe Symbol

Charts & Data Provided By TradingView Get TradingView Free Here

Video: Learn About The State of the Stock Market Today & The Real Statistics

 

 

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Daniel G. Jennings is a highly-experienced freelance writer and blogger who lives and works in Colorado, USA. Jennings has written extensively about value investing, the stock market, retail, cryptocurrency, politics, marketing, technology, and many other subjects. His writing has appeared at Seeking Alpha, The Motley Fool, Geek Crunch Reviews, Empresa Journal, and many other websites. Jennings makes daily posts of his latest writing to www.MarketMadHouse.com

1 COMMENT

  1. I don’t understand why people think the stock market’s volatility is “crazy”. It isn’t. Volatility right now is higher than in 2017, but there have been many years in history when volatility was this high. That being said, the S&P is still being supported on its 200 sma.

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