Archive for Stock Market Analysis
Market Update – UpTrend Showing Weakness
Posted by: | CommentsDear Liberated Stock Traders
as I write we can see the US markets are at a point of indecision. I believe that where the market decides to go from here will be important. The market participants have been fluctuating between being Bullish and Bearish, meaning they are unsure. The news broadcasters are screaming Bullish one day and Bearish the next day. It is important for you to form your own hypothesis.
After reaching a new 2 year high the S&P500 has broken down through its last support line and may continue further. However if we plot an uptrend support line (connecting the lowest lows since March) we see we are still, only just, in an uptrend.
Chart Courtesy of Worden Brothers Inc.
We are currently in a Key Area (shown in the daily S&P500 chart). Where the market decides to go from here may have important implications on the near/medium term trend.
Will it bounce up through the uppermost horizontal support line?
Will it break down through the diagonal Uptrend line and potentially move down to the next support line at 1295, or even further down to 1250?
Only the market will tell us.
What is the lesson here?
Have a contingency plan.
- Do not sit there and hope for the market to move in your direction.
- Decide what you will do with your stocks if the market continues down.
- Decide what you will do if the market moves up.
Make your decisions now to avoid the emotional conflict you will have in the heat of the moment when everything is moving against you.
Stock Charts for the Long Term Stock Market Investor
Posted by: | CommentsI am currently running a number of mentoring sessions with some of my clients. During these sessions I like to understand their investing style in order to help them define a system that suits them.
One client has a bias for long term investing meaning:
- They prefer to buy a stock when it is perceived to be at a significant discount to its book value
- When the stock is undervalued in comparison to its future potential worth
- When the stock has rock solid fundamentals
Although long term investors tend to rely heavily on fundamentals, the role of technical analysis is still important.
This video will show the long term investor some simple yet powerful techniques to enable them to analyze the stock market indices at a glance and be able to avoid any future punishing bust cycles in the market.
Stock Market Training Video Analysis – Global Stock Markets
Posted by: | CommentsIn this video you will learn about the live seminars we have at the Liberated Stock Trader site, and we will also provide an analysis of the worlds stock markets.
Stock Market Mentoring & Seminars – A great Way to Learn
“A picture is worth a thousand words and a conversation is worth a thousand emails”
Liberated Stock Trader – 2010
The importance of live workshops and seminars should not be under valued as a tool for learning. The act of being able to interact live and ask questions and receive real answers is a very valuable and rewarding experience.
So now is your opportunity to connect with other members and with myself, and boost your learning progress.
Global Stock Market Review
- US Markets – S%P 500, Russell 3000, DJ-30, Nasdaq 100
- China – Hang Seng
- India – Sensex
- UK – FTSE 100
- French CAC40
- German – DAX
- Japanese – Nikkei
US Markets Showing Signs Of Slowing Down
Posted by: | CommentsI am heading out on vacation for a few weeks, but wanted to leave a brief market update before I leave.
The US markets are currently sending mixed signals and if you are actively trading at the moment – be careful
Bullish Signs
- July saw the breakout of the down trend from the April high – “Price Channel Breakout” – Positive
- Price dragged itself above the 200 day moving average and has remained there for a few days = Positive
- MACD still looks strong
Bearish Signs
- Volume has been diminishing over the last 10 days suggesting a backing away from the rally
- RSI & TSV are not negative, but they are showing sighs of slowing
Contingency Plans
Always have a plan ready!
- If price breaks below the 200 day MA – move to cash or go short
- If price rests on the 200 day MA and pauses for breath, then starts to advance, go long and look for higher volume.
- We may see some sideways movement over the next few weeks, so maybe a good time to take a break.
Have a great holiday everyone.
Gold Members – Special Market Report 23rd July 2010
Posted by: | CommentsThis message was sent on Friday 23rd July 2010 (pre market open) to Gold Members – those who have purchased the Liberated Stock Trader PRO Training Course
*********************************************
To : Gold Members I hope your PRO training is going well.
I just thought I would give you a special market analysis – only for PRO – Gold Members
The markets are starting to look lively, we are seeing positive divergences in the key oscillators RSI, TSV, Money Flow / MoneyStream, price is moving up on increasing volume, despite the abundance of bears and bad news. The probabilities are shifting from larger downside movements to potential upside movements.
Also in Chapter 3 of your training, the seasonal cycles section shows in the last 10 years, August, October, November and December to be good months.
We might be shaping up for this.
The market is volatile at the moment, and any serious bad news might negatively swing the entire market. So keep alert and be aware of a “potential turnaround”. We are still officially in a downtrend, but the market is looking to shape up for at least a short term move upwards.
Have a great weekend
Barry
**********************************
If you would like to fast track your stock market education and get the benefits of being a gold member see the Liberated Stock Trader PRO product
.
Market Update – US Dow Jones DJ30
Posted by: | CommentsThis market “refuses to die”,
What a rally! No matter what the bad news is, disappointing jobless claims, Goldman Sachs fraud investigation or even volcanic ash over Europe, the Stock Market participants are in good spirits.
Now I am not a “perma” Bear, but now is a time to be a little careful. We have just kicked off earnings season and things are looking positive so far. But lets be clear about this, we need an amazing round of earning reports, including revenue growth, not just earnings growth due to companies cutting expenses by making more and more people redundant. Why do we need a great earning season? We need it just so we can maintain these levels in the Stock Market.
The last time I checked the Price Earning of the S&P500 was at 21. Historically, a P/E of the major US indexes has not been sustainable over 25. In 2000 we reached a PE of nearly 45 on the S&P500 and we all know what followed. So, I would not say the market is at a huge discount today. However, there are still plenty of bargains.
Technical Analysis of the Stock Market
As I has discussed many times in the lessons on RSI / TSV / ROC / Momentum, we need to look to divergences of the Price & Price / Volume indicators with price. I believe we have one such divergence occurring with the SP-500, DJ-30 and the NASDAQ Composite.
RSI Divergence DJ-30
Now I am not saying cash in your chips right now, the market is in a short / medium term uptrend. Simply be on maximum alert and keep your stop losses tight.
As Charles Dow said…
“A trend is in effect until it gives definite signals of a reversal”
We do not have a definite sign of reversal yet. We have simply some early warning signals.
