Archive for Indicators

This is an excerpt from the soon to be released Liberated Stock Trader book and the accompanying “Academy Pro Training Course”

The rate of change is very similar to the Momentum indicator mentioned in the previous section, with one important difference, instead of a subtracting the latest price from the price X periods before it divides it.  This is an important difference that improves the indicator.

Rate of Change = 100 (C / CX)

The results of ROC are similar but slightly better than that of Momentum as it handles large price swings better.  As in the previous section, follow the numbered steps in the following Chart to understand how ROC can tell the story of future price movement.

ROC-rate-of-change

Freestockcharts.com  chart courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

Now this is a busy chart.

  1. Using a trend line we can see that ROC breaks its downtrend at the end of November 2008.  This is a useful way of using Oscillators, plotting trend lines on them.  As oscillators are leading indicators using a trend line will show us when a trend change happens before it is reflected in price.
  2. The price then follows by moving up from 18.90 to 24.30 a 23% gain.
  3. Here we see a false signal, this shows us that no indicator is perfect.  Always remember the price move is the most important, Oscillators can help us to improve our chances of guessing correctly.  However this time it fails.
  4. ROC indicates a positive divergence, yet price hits resistance at 24.30 and then plummets south.
  5. ROC now corrects itself and 2 days before the actual severe price drop ROC shoots downwards, this is a warning sign top exit.
  6. Here again ROC shows a negative divergence.
  7. Price again hits resistance in June at 21.50.  ROC’s divergence was correct and the stock drops.
  8. ROC Surges upwards in August and although price retraces in September ROC powers on showing a positive divergence.
  9. The first 2 weeks in October the price surges again.
  10. ROC shows another negative divergence with the price trend.
  11. No new price high
  12. Price falls, again predicted by ROC.

You are now familiar with positive and negative divergences, but also realize that price is the most important indicator and that Oscillators can be wrong.  Wait for the indicator to scream, if it says nothing move on.

Learn Stock Market Trading and Investing with FREE Education and Training on Stock Screening, Stock Charts, Candlesticks, Technical Analysis & Fundamental Analysis and Stock Chart Indicators, Trading Academy Membership is free register here.

Other Chapter excerpts from the Liberated Stock Trader Book & Training Course are here :

Chapter 1 – Essential Stock Market Knowledge – Fundamentals

Chapter 2 – Why do Booms and Busts Occur?

Chapter 3 – Stock Market Cycles – Business & Economic Cycles – Kondratieff to Kuznets

Chapter 4 – Is the Company in great shape – P/E Ratio

Chapter 5 – How to find the best stocks

Chapter 6 – Japanese Candlesticks – Bullish Reversal Patterns

Chapter 7 – How to draw trend lines

Chapter 8 – ROC Rate of Change Indicator

Dear liberated investor, use these rules to using Charting Indicators and you will be using a wealth of experience that comes only with years of trading!

“There is no liberation without labor…and there is no freedom which is free.”
Siri Singh

There are a lot of indicators out there; we cannot cover them all in the detail, however the principles of using indicators are as follows

  1. Understand how they are calculated and what they are designed to achieve.
  2. Divergence Is King. When an oscillating indicator moves in the opposite direction to price, this is a vital sign. See all previous articles to review how divergences are used correctly.
  3. Back test the indicators. , did they work on this stock in the past. Scroll backwards to 1 year before. Then scroll forward day by day or week by week to see the indicator change, and then ask yourself.
    What is this indicator telling me?
    Would I buy/sell this stock based on the information shown?
    If the indicators worked on this stock in the past, it may have a better chance of working in the future.
  4. Never use 1 indicator alone. Use a family of indicators, they should mostly confirm each other. Use them as a suite of self checks before making a decision.
  5. Use indicators on multiple timeframes. 1 day, 5 day, monthly, yearly. In this way you can review how far back a trend goes, and see if your hypothesis stands the test of time. Beware that reviewing trends further back than 2 years may render the data irrelevant. Sometimes markets have a very short memory and stocks can completely change character.
  6. Some indicators are proprietary and come only with “Pay For” applications. The person who has a larger portfolio way do well to invest in a solution that provides professional quality charting information. Telechart from the Worden Brothers is one such tool, that I believe delivers a superior Trading and investment framework. The Worden Family has 2 particular indicators worthy of special mention, Time Segmented Volume (TSV) & Money Stream (MS). These indicators really deliver the goods, and are alone worth the $29 per month subscription, never mind the rest of the application which is one of the finest solutions available to the private investor.
  7. Use custom timescales on the indicators that reflect the timescale that you want to invest.
    If you are buying a stock for the long term (2-10 years), use longer term timeframes and base your decisions primarily on fundamentals, then on chart patterns.
    If you are buying Mid-Term (6 months – 2 year), use Earnings Momentum in the last 6 quarters, plus the chart indicators, Moving Averages 50, 100, 200 days)
    If you are buying short term (1 weeks to 6 months) use indicators that are tuned for the short term, Moving averages 10 & 20 Days, Money Flow, MACD (10:30:5), Stochastics.
    If you are a Day Trader you are usually full-time, stressed out, and trading Real Time / Intraday, which requires specialist software, and a penchant for losing money. The Liberated Stock Trader is not for you.
  8. Price is the most important indicator of all, it does not matter what the other indicators say, if your stock is moving against you take action, do not blame the indicators.
  9. Be aware of the markets influence over your stock, if it is a disaster day on the markets, it does not matter what the indicators tell you will happen, your stock can get dragged down with the masses.
  10. Pre-Define a set of rules for the trade and test the rules. For example.
  • MA 10 & 20 Cross Over
  • MACD shows a positive Divergens over 8 weeks
  • RSI shows a positive divergence

Good luck, and may the Trend be with you.

Any questions, leave a post!

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Liberated Stock Trader receives no payments from any company and promotes no particular stock. This is an independent, unbiased resource for learning to trade the stock market. Liberated Stock Trader is an affiliate of Worden Brothers Inc (the makers of Telechart) because the product is of a high quality and has been used by the author for over 10 years. So if you click a link here and buy the product, the owner may receive a very small commission.

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