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Dec
14

Ichimoku Cloud Chart S&P500

By barrydmoore

Following on from my post 3 months ago on September 6th 2009, I summarized that

“The market participants have not fully committed to a Bull Market yet, although the recovery since March 2009 has been impressive. An exit from the Ichimoku cloud upwards will be seen as a very positive sign. This perhaps explains why at this very time the market seems to be volatile. It is decision time and only the market will tell us the way”.

ichimoku cloud

TeleChart2007 chart courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.


Well the market has told us the way the way was up.  We have now clearly broken upwards through the Cloud which is a good sign.  However taking a look at the weekly chart we can see in the bottom pane that MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) has dropped from a peak in the first week of August to hovering around Zero.  MACD has the ability to contradict price movement, it shows in a unique way through the MACD Histogram that the move may be running out of gas.  We certainly see this reflected in price also.  On the SP-500 we are seeing the ADX consolidating under 25, and the DI+ and the DI- crossing, this shows no primary trend direction.  Consolidation is normal at this stage of a new primary Bull Market.  I believe the first Leg of the Bull Market is complete and that some pullback is required to enable the market to gather a head of steam before it embarks on its next leg up.  So setting price targets is important at this stage, but all target setting has to be done with caution.  Markets can react strongly to shocks and surprises and who know what surprises either positive or negative are on the horizon.  However a pullback to the top of the Ichimoku Support (the cloud) for the S&P500 to approximately 1000 points would not be out of the question, indeed we have seen clearly that the market has hit strong overhead resistance at 1111, for the last 4 weeks.  I believe it will take a move on increased volume and good news for the S&P to close higher than this mark.  So make sure your stop losses are in place.

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