Easter is almost upon us, so it is time for a bible reference.Luke 13:28 – “In that place there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth”.
That place is the Stock Market, and those weeping and gnashing their teeth could be the investors who did not see the turning of the markets coming. Most of the major stock exchanges have seen a poor start to the new year in 2016.
But what is the current status, which stock markets or indices are faring better or worse.
In this article I will compare a handful of the biggest stock markets in the U.S. Asia and Europe. The charts and system I use for the analysis are all outlined in my “Stock Market Crash Detector Book”. You can build this system for yourself to help with long term market analysis to help plan your investments.
Asia – Shanghai Composite Index
The gnashing of teeth is probably the loudest in Asia specifically China were we have seen the value of the Shanghai Composite nearly half over the last year. The first warnings we got were in June 2015 where you can see the “Shock Event Warning” (in Yellow). Interestingly the full bear market signal did not kick in until January. This market was over extended as it increased by 150% in 1 year, this meant that the main bear signal was not triggered. But any basic technical analysis if used correctly would have told you to exit.
The Bear is ruling in China right now and that bubble is well and truly burst. The Bear Market Signal is in effect, expect the trend to continue down.
Asia – Hang Seng Index
The Hang Seng has seen it’s own share of weeping as it lost 30% over the last year, yet the Bear continues to reign. No sign of a recovery soon as the market continues to correct.
Europe – UK FTSE 100 Index
As the shocks in the east usually have an impact in the west, the downside for the UK for the year to date has been slow and steady losing only 16%. The FTSE 100 is still in a Bear market move down and despite a recovery from February they are not out of the woods yet.
U.S. SP-500 Index
The Standard & Poors 500 Index has fared very well in comparison with Europe and Asia. Two corrections not exceeding 7% have shown that the U.S. economy and outlook is somewhat rosier than it’s competitors.
While the Bear Market indicator did light up twice, they were not active for long. The Bear Market signal has ended and the SP-500 is a buy again, at least for now. There is sideways consolidation happening and the breakout of the channel will determine the future direction.
U.S. Dow Jones Industrial 30
The picture is identical for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJ-30).
In the Christian world Easter is the time of the resurrection, the time when Jesus ascended to heaven. While the U.S. markets are weathering the storm in Europe they are not doing so well. We cannot say that Easter will be a time of ascendance to the heavens for investors. The longer term direction of the markets is usually dictated by systemic crisis, macro economic policy and the business cycle ( all explained in the LST PRO Training) to that end I do not see an impending crisis. There is a serious correction in China, Europe is hanging in there and the U.S. is feeling decidedly jittery but has not lost all hope.
Happy Easter and here is to a great summer of recovery.